A question concerning Wheat futures during last night’s Hidden Pivot Webinar led to the interesting discovery that the December contract had just bounced from a bear market target nearly a year in coming. The pattern shown, a slow-motion train wreck, used a $9.77/bushel high 11 months ago to project a final low at 647.25. Two days ago, a low at exactly that price occurred, giving way to a so-far bounce of 23 cents that would have produced a theoretical profit of $1150 per contract.
The implication is that a major bottom is in, although if the futures were to relapse beneath so important a Hidden Pivot support relatively soon — say, within three weeks or less — it would imply that powerful selling remains to be spent. The next place we might look for the December contract to find traction would be at 624.25, but in the meantime, traders should look to get long via camouflage using the 60-minute chart for targeting. As of around 1:40 a.m. Friday EDT, there was just such a pattern developing with an implied entry price at 669.88 and a target at 676.50 (a=653.25 at 2:15 p.m. on 4/18; b=666.50 at 7:00 a.m. on 4/19). _______ UPDATE (May 7, 12:01 p.m. EDT): On the 30-minute chart, the 620.00 ‘D’ target of a nicely defined downtrend can be bottom-fished with a very tight stop-loss. The coordinates are: A=717.00 on 3/30; B=647.25 on 4/18, and C=689.75 on 4/18. _______FURTHER UPDATE (May 18, 2:30 a.m.): Wheat has trampolined off a 629 low, a dime from our target, so we’ll put this tout aside.