A rampaging stock market appears to have left Apple behind. This is akin to leaving one’s canteen and jerry can in the garage when embarking on a drive into the desert. The broad averages will not get very far without Apple, and if it resists their upward pull for yet another day or two, look for Apple to win the tug-of-war. From a technical standpoint, the stock looks like it will need to chop around for at least another day or two before making up its tiny mind about the next big move. In the meantime, we can treat the island-gap low at 587.71 (see inset) as we would an external peak. Thus, any B-C- pullback from just above it would be usable for a camouflage entry from the long side. ______ UPDATE (August 1, 1:48 a.m. EDT): AAPL is in the throes of a vicious short squeeze, having rallied $40 in mere days. Technically speaking, the move will become more than a mere vendetta if and when it surpasses the external peak at 620.25 that that I’ve labeled in the new chart. Because that would have bullish implications for the stock market as a whole, I’ve set a screen alert to warn me if buyers should get close.______ UPDATE (August 9, 11:53 p.m.): The stock’s pop earlier this week to 625.00 was unambiguously bullish — not just for Apple but for U.S. stock averages. Now, the stock could pull back to as low as 600.25 without generating even a mildly bearish signal. _______ UPDATE (August 14, 11:20 a.m. EDT): AAPL is approaching a high-probability rally target that would complete a pattern more than two months in the making. The target is 637.71, and it can be found on the 15-minute chart as follows: A=549.50 (6/4), B=617.22 (7/10) and C=570.00 (7/25). To short the stock, buy the Oct-Sep 620 put spread for 8.40 or less; or short 637.59, stop 638.05, 400 shares. _______ UPDATE (11:33 a.m.): We were stopped out quickly for a trading loss of $136 on 400 shares. when Apple made an actual top at 638.61. Although I still expect a top to occur near the target, the so far high at 638.61 is sufficiently above it as to warn that still higher prices impend — i.e., buyers are telling us they have unfinished business, even if the stock should pull back $3-$5 from here. Note: If you shorted via the put spread, hang onto it and let me know you’ve done so in the chat room, since I’ll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (3:55 p.m. EDT): The stock has fallen sharply from the 638.61 high, hitting a so-far low of 630.21. I am still trying to determine whether anyone executed the put spread and will initiate tracking guidance if this proves to be the case. _______ UPDATE (August 15, 3:16 p.m. EDT): I’ve had several reports of fills from subscribers, including a diagonal calendar spread that holds short weekly 630 August puts (rolling into Septembers after Friday) against long September monthlies. Accordingly, I’ll track an initial position of four Oct-Sep 620 put spreads @ 8.40. For now, offer two of the spreads for 9.60. A fill at this price would require AAPL to fall perhaps $5 from current levels., to around 625.
