I must have missed whatever news has been driving this hoax higher, but if it reaches the 90.53 target shown, let’s plan on getting short via camouflage. You should start looking for the turn at 90.10 or so. Please note that the 87.09 midpoint would also be short-able via camouflage, but it would be riskier to do so once the futures have poked above the look-to-the-left peak at 87.13. _______ UPDATE (July 19, 2:53 a.m. EDT): The futures have traded as high as 90.72 — just within the 21-cent margin I usually allow this vehicle at Hidden Pivots on intraday charts. (The relatively wide leeway is why we don’t trade crude very often.) Camouflageurs should look for opportunities to get short on the one-minute chart. As of this moment (i.e., 2:53 a.m. EDT, July 19) the futures have just tripped a perfect entry signal at 90.57 with a ‘p’ midpoint support at 90.54 and a D at 90.48. If any night owls have filled, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. Please note that I’ve refreshed the chart to show up-to-the-minute action. (Note: No one stepped forth in the chat room, so I have not followed up with a tracking position.) _______ UPDATE (July 19, 2:36 p.m. EDT): With today’s upward explosion, we’ll need to shift our analysis to the daily chart. It says the rally will continue to at least 95.35 (or 95.68, basis September). The rally at this point is obviously more than the hoax I’d assumed it to be, although I am baffled by its cause. Assuming we can safely rule out supply/demand factors arising from a global economic recovery — quite the opposite is occurring, actually — we are stuck with geopolitical reasons. Even at that, the futures will need to push well above $100 before we can infer that war with Iran or some other supply shock impends.
