ESU12 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1366.50)

Last week’s high missed our 1392.50 target by 4.50 points, and although it is still valid in theory it is no longer quite so appealing as a place to try to get short. (But by all means, try it anyway — via camouflage — if the Hidden Pivot should be closely approached today or tomorrow.) My hunch is that the futures will grope their way lower, eventually coming down to at least the textbook ‘W’ correction line of the pattern shown at 1353.50. Thence we might look for the 17-point thrust that would signal a resumption of the 66-point booster-stage rally begun on July 25 from 1321.25.  That implies a modest, speculative short from these levels for day traders,  but on the 5-minute chart where you would presumably be looking for such an opportunity, you’ll see that the futures were bullishly struggling early Wednesday morning to reach, even, the midpoint support. _______ UPDATE (August 2, 1:22 a.m. EDT):  Following yesterday’s tiresome action, there is no change in the advice given above. Night owls looking for something to do might be able to use a pattern taking shape on the lesser charts to do some tightly-stopped bottom-fishing. On the 30-minute chart, using the coordinates A=1380.00 (1:30 pm. EDT), B=1367.75 and C=1377.50, D=1365.25 is where you could look for the bounce.  If you’re looking for an easier way than camouflage, simply bid 1365.25 with a stop-loss as tight as 1364.75 (!). _______ UPDATE (10:13 a.m. EDT): The overnight trade never came, and the target itself was pre-empted anyway when speculators drove the futures into their wonted headless chicken dance Thursday morning.  As if we needed yet more proof of what a bunch of morons, mental defectives and sociopaths animate the markets each day, here, from Google news, was the ostensible reason for this morning’s wild, wholly gratuitous swings: “U.S. stocks opened sharply lower Thursday after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi failed to announce concrete plans to help solve Europe’s debt crisis.”