USU12 – September T-Bonds (Last:148^24)

Despite the strong bounce from yesterday’s heavily oversold lows, the downthrust did considerable technical damage.  For one, it breached a moderately important Hidden Pivot support at 148^06 that I’d flagged here earlier; and for two, it took out some important lows from June, although not the key low at 146^28 recorded on June 10 or an even more important one at 146^02 from May 22 (see inset).  The higher of those two numbers is  likely to act like a magnet and should be regarded as a minimum downside objective for the near term.  If the lower (146^02) is exceeded by even a single tick, however,  it would create the most powerful bearish impulse leg seen in this vehicle years, signaling a possible end to the secular bull.  Keep in mind that the downward breach of those two lows would need to come via an unpaused thrust to have the most bearish implications that we might draw.  Alternatively, if the futures rally to exceed  the August 6 high at 150^11 without having penetrated 146^02, they’d be signaling a strong resumption of the long-term bull market. You can learn how to do this stuff yourself — and more easily than you might imagine.  Click here for a free trial subscription.