January 2013

From the obvious pattern that hits the eye when you look at Goldman's daily chart (see inset), I've culled a less obvious one that looks like it could produce a shortable top.  The Hidden Pivot target where we'll attempt to do so lies at 143.35, and I'll suggest buying four February 140 puts if the stock should get within 15 cents of the target. To manage the risk of this trade initially, I'll suggest ditching the position if the puts trade for 25 cents less than you paid for them. In theory this will limit a loss to about $100. I am recommending this because if the intuitively obvious pattern plays out rather than the somewhat idiosyncratic one that has seized my fancy, the stock will be on its way to a minimum 149.42 (which will be shortable too, by the way). _______ UPDATE (1:32 p.m. EST): We were stopped out, with subscribers reporting actual losses on the trade ranging from $100 to $125.  The stock is now on its way to the even more promising top at 149.42 mentioned above.  We'll want to short there more aggressively than we did this time, so be ready for further instructions.

DaBoyz had bears by the cahones from the opening bar, short-squeezing this erstwhile dog for nearly $25 at its peak. The chart (see inset) shows that the trampoline bounce slightly exceeded the 508.32 midpoint pivot associated with a 461.64 downside target that can continue to serve as our minimum objective for AAPL's bear market.  A bounce back up to p is usually a good place to get short if you missed an earlier opportunity, but in this case I'd suggest doing so only via camouflage, since the stock is now bullishly impulsive on the lesser charts and may become even more ferociously so as DaBoyz unwind put positions ahead of Friday's option expiration.

Yesterday's session amounted to a tiresome holding pattern for most of the issues we track. Perhaps bulls were discombobulated by the unaccustomed spectacle of Apple shares getting viciously goosed by DaBoyz?  My hunch is that it's distribution, as today's AAPL tout makes clear. The stock is shortable nonetheless, having rallied back to an important Hidden Pivot that used to be support, but only if you really know what you're doing.  Want to learn how to really know what you're doing? Click here to enter the magical world of Hidden Pivots and 'camouflage' trading.

A trading “tout” disseminated to subscribers the night before caught the exact low in the E-Mini S&Ps Tuesday morning, allowing subscribers to climb aboard for a ride worth 12 points so far. That equates to a theoretical gain of $600 per contract. The graphic below (click on it to sharpen and enlarge the image) shows not only the original recommendation as it appeared on the home page late Monday night, but intraday updates that went out to subscribers as Tuesday’s session evolved. The purpose of the updates was to provide further guidance to subscribers who had reported doing the trade.  Rick’s Picks shuns P&L claims, by the way, since they rarely seem to match the results subscribers achieve following the advice of some guru.  Our policy is to provide “tracking guidance” for a recommended trade, but only if at least two subscribers report having filled the order.  And if their prices differ, we use the worst price reported as our theoretical cost basis for the position. In the case of the E-Mini recommendation, several subscribers weighed in with fills shortly after the index futures touched 1456.50, the number highlighted above in brown. Technical jargon aside, and as you can see for yourself, the advice was pretty straightforward: Take a speculative stake if the futures fall to 1456.50. The likelihood that this would indeed occur was signaled the night before when the futures slightly exceeded the target’s midpoint “sibling,” labeled as a red “p” in the chart immediately below. Typically, we advise taking a small partial profit early in a trade if the opportunity should arise. The relaxation this brings is the best tool we’ve found to help a trader manage the risk of a trade from that point forward.  In the trade detailed above, based on the two guidance alerts

There are many updates and fresh charts in today's list, most of them bullish and with tradable implications.  Camouflageurs in particular could have a field day in what remains of this week, so check 'em out!  (And click here for a free trial to Rick's Picks and access to all features, touts, charts and our 24/7 chat room.)

I am tracking a single contract whose cost basis has effectively been lowered to 1433.50 by partial-profit-taking on three additional contracts held initially. Since we're shooting for a 1494.50 target that has been drum-rolled here for a while, there is good reason to be aggressive by using a generous trailing stop. My suggestion is to plan a 1452.25 exit, based on the 'external' low highlighted in the chart. We'll raise it if the futures take out recent highs near 1472.00, but I'll need to see what the hourly chart looks like at that point in order to extrapolate an impulse-leg stop from it.  I'll post the stop as an update in the chat room, but if you want to be notified in real time by e-mail make sure you've enabled the 'E-Mail Notifications' feature on your My Account page.  _______ UPDATE (January 16 at 6:07 p.m. EST):  Following yesterday's hokeypokey price action, we continue to hold a single contract tied to the risk management criteria spelled out above.  ______ UPDATE (January 17 at 10:06 p.m EST):  We have a theoretical profit of $2000 in our position at current prices, but there's $1000 more to be extracted if and when the futures reach our longstanding target at 1494.50.  For now, we'll maintain a generous fixed stop at 1456.25, where the hourly chart would turn bearishly impulsive.  In the meantime, I see little risk until buyers encounter 1481.75, a Hidden Pivot unmentioned until now that could show sufficient stopping power to terminate the rally.  When we get there, we'll want to tighten up with an impulse leg-based stop-loss using, perhaps, the 5-minute chart.  Stay tuned, since I'll post explicit details here via an update, in the chat room, and by e-mail notification to those of you who have enabled it on your

Rick expects gold to remain rangebound between $1580 and $1800 in 2013, but that could change in a blink if Comex futures were to hit either of two specific thresholds in the coming months. During this 60-minute discourse, sponsored by GoldSeek.com, he takes a finely nuanced technical look at gold futures, the Dollar Index, and such popular investment vehicles as GDX/GDXJ, Goldcorp, Newmont, Allied Nevada, Timmins and GORO. His conclusions should be helpful to timers, traders and investors looking to avoid the potentially treacherous shoals of these all-too-interesting times.

My childhood friend Glenn Klotz (son of Red Klotz, at 5'7" the shortest basketball player ever to play in an NBA game) grew up in a beachfront home in the Atlantic City island community of Margate, NJ. An environmental activist and blogger, Glenn has fought a tireless battle against the further proliferation of artificial dunes such as the one that has cut off ocean views and breezes for pedestrians on the Atlantic City boardwalk. The battle has now been lost as a result of Hurricane Sandy, he says, and this seems likely to produce a property-insurance windfall for owners of NJ beach-block homes that typically sell for $2 million or more.  Glenn wrote me recently as follows: The big push is on here to get Margate in the dune system. (Click here for the full story in the Atlantic City Press.) The Press story is one-sided garbage. They found some guy who had nothing to do with the actual fight [against the dunes] and set him up as a spokesperson for anti-dune forces. At this point, however, the battle has been lost, effectively ended by Hurricane Sandy. My position is to let them have their stupid-ass dunes, for all the good it will do in the long run.  In fact, 95% of the damage island-wide was from bay-side flooding, and all the dunes in the world won't hold back the bay. From this point forward, here's how things are going to work, and it's ironic: The new flood-elevation maps will turn most of [Absecon] Island into flood zones, and homeowners will either have to lift their homes to qualify for flood insurance or be barred from selling them. But -- get this! --the beach-block, with its government-built-and-paid-for dune, will be exempt!  Once again, the Too Big To Fail crowd gets some socialism for

With a strong thrust yesterday that exceeded a minor 'external' peak at 1682.40 recorded January 3 on the way down, the futures created on the hourly chart what camouflageurs will recognize as an excellent opportunity to get long. Leveraging the pattern shown would have triggered you into the trade at 1679.30. You should check out the 3-minute chart to see how easy and free of stress this trade could have been, even for beginners. (The relevant pattern, with two single-bar coordinates, is A= 1677.10 at 7:57 a.m. EST,  B=1681.00 at 8:09; and C=1679.30 at 8:18.) Since the 1682.80 midpoint resistance has already been exceeded by $1.90, a follow-through leg to the 1689.80 target is a decent bet. Notice that if the futures get there, it will refresh the bullish energy of the chart, possibly creating a new 'camo' entry opportunity for a breakaway ride above $1700.  The futures are currently relapsing as they nearly always do when the regular session begins, but even if the pattern yielding the 1689.80 target gets blown, the overall picture still looks encouraging. _______ UPDATE (10:54 p.m EST):  A day of gratuitous ups and downs had no bearing on my immediate outlook. Camouflageurs will be on their own, however, in seizing whatever opportunity may arise today, if any.