January 2013

Caterpillar is correcting an impressive impulse leg and bids fair to hit par on the next run-up.  My hunch is that the spectacular gap created on the first trading day of the new year needs some backing and filling before the stock is ready to embark on a robust C-D leg. If the pattern shown, or a further evolution of it, trips an entry signal, be ready to jump on it via a chart of 15-minute degree or less. _____ UPDATE (11:01 p.m. EST):  The stock looks a little too strong at the moment to bless us with an easy camo trade.  That could imply entering at the point 'x' shown in the new chart, but it would have been too risky to have done so in the final hour yesterday. My hunch is that the entry trigger will be left in the dust by a gap-up opening Wednesday morning; or, if stocks are weak, rendered moot by a dip below the existing point C. Whatever happens, I'll leave it up to you to improvise an entry strategy on-the-fly. If you're interested, please don't hesitate to query me about this when I'm in the chat room. _____ UPDATE (January 22 at 12:51 a.m. EST): Friday's goosing put this runaway freight train on course for a run-up to 102.69 (daily chart, A=86.55 on 12/27 at 4 p.m. EST; B=95.67).  The midpoint sibling lies just above, at 98.13. Camouflageurs should use May 10's external peak at 97.39 to set up an entry trigger. Beware of a fleeting B-C pullback, since the rally looks strong enough to pull a hundred bulls with it.  _______ UPDATE (February 5, 12:58 a.m. EST):  Friday's gap-up high at 99.70 missed the target by $3, but because it remains viable you should stay alert to the possibility of

Is Crude poised for a breakout? Check out the excellent 'camo' opportunity visible at the right-hand edge of the February contract's daily chart. I noticed it after the 93.45 entry signal had been tripped yesterday, but the signal itself will remain actionable via camouflage on charts of lesser degree. A stall so far at the 94.24 midpoint resistance beckons caution.  However, the fact that the point B high did not exceed October 10's marquee high at 94.87 gives this bullish opportunity its allure.

We've been fixated on a presumably very short-able rally target at 1494.50 in the E-Mini S&Ps, but an alternative target has come belatedly into view that could hold an equally compelling opportunity. My trading bias in the meantime is bullish, but with the futures soon to enter their third week of tired upwardliness, there is little of daily interest to recommend.

This glue horse could use a dose of whatever it was that Lance Armstrong was taking.  Eventual movement to a 1494.50 rally target is not in doubt, only the timing of it.  DaBoyz quite evidently are waiting for just the right news item to short-squeeze the futures into a thrust capable of eating through supply in a way that ordinary, bullish buying never can. In the meantime, night owls should consider bottom-fishing at the 1456.50 target of the minor corrective pattern shown. Its 'p' sibling at 1461.75 has been exceeded to the downside by three ticks, probably enough to send this vehicle the full distance in search of tradable support.  Incidentally, an alternative rally target at 1481.75 has belatedly smacked me in the face (belatedly because it was technically 'know-able' as early as November 19: Daily chart, A=1313.00 on July 24; B= 1461.00 on September 14; etcetera.)  Keen as I've been to get short at 1494.50, we should monitor this vehicle closely in case the actual opportunity occurs at the lower target. ______ UPDATE (10:39 a.m. EST):  The bottom-fishing target drum-rolled in today's tout (see above) caught the exact low, which occurred at 8:30 a.m. EST. If you got long down there please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance for your further benefit. ______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EST): Several subscribers reported fills on or near the low, so here we go:  Take a partial profit on the position now, with the futures trading around 1462.  Then, use an impulse-leg stop-loss derived from the 5-minute chart. What that currently implies is that you should stop yourself out on any uncorrected downthrust exceeding 1458.25.  If you hold just a single contract, use the same stop-loss, but widen it and swing for the fences if

Wall Street Journal reviewer Walter Mossberg has finally come over from the Dark Side, acknowledging what PC world’s early adopters have known for months – i.e., that Microsoft’s latest operating system looks like a loser. While it’s hardly unusual for Rick’s Picks to put the knock on Microsoft, a company that couldn’t innovate its way out a Glad bag, it’s almost unheard of for Mossberg to do so. In the  past, he’s played softball with the Redmond behemoth’s products because, if you want to keep your job as a computer-product reviewer for a major newspaper, you don’t pick fights with the largest software company in the world. And yet, in a Personal Technology column published last week, writing with a boldness we’ve never before seen in the man, Mossberg said in effect that unless your computer is practically brand new, you’d have to be crazy to “upgrade” to Windows 8:  "To be sure,” Mossberg wrote, starting in low gear, “people upgrading newer PCs, whose makers anticipated Windows 8 or have software patches ready to accommodate it, will likely have a much better experience. I learned—too late—that neither of the computers I was upgrading was on the list of models for which their manufacturers provided such patches. This may be because, in both cases, aspects of their hardware weren't up to snuff for Windows 8's more demanding requirements.”  Oh, come on, Walter!  Up to snuff??  Don’t blame it on your equipment. Just come out and say it! Death’s Head Warning And boy, did he ever! Mossberg’s next sentence should be affixed to every Windows 8 installation disk, like an FDA death’s head to a pack of cigarettes: “The touch pad on my Lenovo ThinkPad X301 laptop can't be used to scroll in the new tabletlike Start Screen environment in Windows 8,

Early Monday morning, a moderate retracement in the E-Mini S&Ps was dancing to our tune, setting up a possible long-entry opportunity for night owls equipped with 'camouflage' gear. See today's tout for more-explicit information. ______ UPDATE (11:46 a.m. EST): Doing the hurt dance at the moment, evidently bogged down by Apple's waxing difficulties.  It is bullish, however, that DaBoyz are able to keep stocks aloft and in a holding pattern even on days when Apple, the stock that means the most to them, is getting hammered.

I'd suggest not taking this vehicle too seriously at the moment, since it seems bound and determined to screw with our heads.  In any case, the best clue we'll have concerning the short-term trend will be price action at the p midpoint of the pattern shown. A bounce from within a couple of ticks of it would be a first step in the resumption of the bull trend, still viable, that began last summer. Keep in mind that p could migrate higher if gold's so-far timid ascent Sunday night continues. ______ UPDATE (9:16 a.m. EST): February Gold has rallied a gratuitous $15 within a meaningless range this morning -- stronger than the behavior shown in the chart I'd sketched out, but not so strongly as to imply anything in particular.

I returned from the Hard Asset Conference in San Francisco in November with a ringing endorsement of Altius cribbed from a panel discussion that featured five conference speakers.  The stock has taken off in the last two weeks, but not sufficiently to generate a bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart.  The daily, however, is more encouraging (see inset), and even offers a very subtle look-to-the-left peak that we might use to get long.  It lies at 11.64, and leveraging it later may be less risky than trying to get aboard now, given the stock's manic surge from around $10 a share. ______ UPDATE (January 22 at 12:57 a.m. EST):  The stock has gone ballistic (see inset), with a moon-shot high so far at 12.920. If you caught a ride -- there was an entry trigger at 11.40 on the daily chart just before the stock took off -- please let me know in the chat room and I'll provide tracking guidance if more two or more fills are reported.  ________ UPDATE (March 4): The stock has taken a brutal hit, falling  from $13 to $10+ in the last two weeks (see inset).  We'll wait for a conventional buy signal to get aboard, so stay tuned via the chat room and 'E-mail Notifications" (available on your My Account page).  ______ UPDATE (April 8):  We'll back away from this stock, since its ultraviolent swings can be traded only by paying obsessive attention to the very lesser charts.

The March contract looked poised Sunday night to make another downpayment on the 1494.50 target that was more or less guaranteed here a while back, even when this vehicle was falling. Shortly after midnight EST, buyers had pushed above the 1470.25 midpoint associated with a 1478.00 rally target. Camouflageurs should look for entry opportunities on the 5-minute chart or less, but I'd recommend doing so only after a bearish feint, since buyers seemed to be waiting for "news" to move the market higher.