No Trader Left Behind – Session 6 (April 9, 2013)
Attendee Comments
Hi Rick,
Thanks for taking the time to coach us in the nuances of hidden pivotry yesterday. The main learning points for me were:
• The best HP trading opportunities are via camouflage at the reversal points of trends in higher degree time frames which can be identified via P and D targets.
• Single bar C coordinates are better because by their nature fewer traders are on board in the new direction due to the stops that were triggered by the sharp move that terminated at C and hence a larger move can be expected due to reduced profit taking.
Unfortunately, I failed to articulate my own question well enough and your response while informative did not address the issue I was trying to resolve. If you have time, perhaps I could have another go at explaining my query. It concerns the actual mechanics and timing of placing orders in response to an evolving or confirmed ABCX pattern. I will assume that half the position is exited at P and a quarter at D.
For example, let’s say we have A=1550, B=1558, C=1555 => X=1557, P=1559, D=1563.
Approach 1 (Anticipating the pattern): After a potential C has formed at 1555 but before X=1557 has been reached to confirm C, I could place the following order: STOP BUY 4 CONTRACTS @ 1557 WITH ATTACHED IF DONE ONE-CANCELS-THE-OTHER STOP SELL/LIMIT SELL ORDERS: 2 @ 1554.75/1559, 1 @ 1554.75/1563 & 1 @ 1554.75/-. I could cancel adjust this order, if C is breached before X is reached.
Approach 2 (Reacting to a confirmed pattern): After 1555 has been hit before C is breached, LIMIT BUY 4 CONTRACTS @ 1557 WITH ATTACHED IF DONE ORDERS AS PER (1) ABOVE.
Approach 3: As per approach 2 but use MARKET ORDER
There are other approaches obviously, including manually handling stop losses amd profit targets, using stop limit orders, etc. and there is the matter of the adjustments to live orders (e.g. for a trailing stop loss) but to limit the scope of the question, can you confirm the specifics of how and when you place orders for camouflage entries.
Thanks a lot for your help,
Chris M.
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Hi Rick,
It was great to hear your voice again. Although you didn’t refer to it directly the most important thing I got from this discussion was your unintentional review of dueling impulses and the realization for me at least that nothing can be done but set arbitrary stops. For example, I may have a perfect set up on a daily to go long say, it goes through P, and then impulsively turns around and back down on a ten minute chart. If I was to hang on, my stop would be below the daily C and it would be a big loss. This has happened to me countless times. To jump out totally at P is one solution but then occasionally you leave profits as it heads to the target D. Risk management is still a problem for me.
I did send a question to Marilyn prior to the session but post meeting decided that it was irrelevant.
If when you make up an extra pdf file on camouflage for early pivoteers, I would appreciate a copy. I may also have to enroll on your weekly seminars. It wouldn’t be live for me because of the time difference, but I could review the copies.
Thanks for doing these extra sessions, they clarify how sloppy some of us have become.
All the best to you and yours,
Serge L
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Hi Rick,
This is quite ‘autobiographical’, so I’ve bold-ed and coloured my comments on the Session #6 below, and should you not have time just scroll past the chatter…
It was great to get to hear you in an intimate study session. I hadn’t realized there was ‘homework’ and ought to have had specific questions and/or charts prepared for review – I’d like to do so when you re-start the ‘No Trader Left Behind’ series, again.
My course book is from the January 21-22, 2009 Online Session Hidden Pivot Seminar, w/CD of 1378 Charts. It is truly a wealth of information and a very clear basis with which to implement the disciplined practice necessary to succeed in the ‘dangerous waters’ and not be ‘market meat’.
I see your point from the session that the essence of the Camouflage Technique is implicit within what is covered in the text (especially within the “Selection of Subtleties” section at the back – but should there be additional specific things you’ve illustrated regards Camo in later courses, I’d certainly be interested to receive a digital .pdf and/or CD, of them.
Frankly, I’ve never day-traded (beyond a few ‘buy+hold-type’ vehicles), but still have a little reserve of Au that I can lever for margin coverage at a broker here in Canada (Questrade). They are however not yet handling options, though reportedly coming soon with E-mini’s, multi-leg, etc. I could also trade via TD here, or another one of the discount brokers.
My ‘hang-up’ is fully psychological, and in two parts. Firstly, I’ve felt the need to deeply and properly set a mental attitude to countenance loss, to lessen the ‘fear/greed’ quotient and ratio.
Secondly, my nature is such that I am a ‘detail person’, and I am not comfortable with doing anything without full understanding – measure thrice, cut once.
And to extend the analogy – know the saw blade, who made it, how to sharpen it, the bench surface and whether there’s extra fuses in the fuse box.
Before finding your Hidden Pivot method, I explored several routes to educate myself (beyond trucking armfuls of books back from the local library), following via online ‘free’ offerings; Carter’s “Trade the Markets” daily, numerous introductory courses in Bollinger bands, Doji, stochastics, volume/momentum trading and much more, plus several intro Options courses, finally sitting through several weeks of PFG-Best’s intro course for traders, which finally gave me a sense of ‘who’s who’ and how it all works – the counterparties involved and various and arcane vernacular fundamental to risking ones’ skin in this profession. I declined their offers to place funds with their trading house…about a year before the debacle. {Anecdotally, I was also offered a berth for my funds via intermediaries here in Ottawa, with Bernie Madoff’s operation, back in early 2008 – but didn’t like the ‘lack of hands on’ with my money, and so declined}
I even (earlier) bought one of Bill Poulos’ Profits Run earlier programs, “Market Mastery”, which I believe I understood sufficiently, but was never moved to implement. Even then it just seemed ‘too simple’, too ‘programmatic’. {Elliot Wave is way beyond my ken, btw.} Just incidentally, I did pass the Canadian Securites Course back in ’90, w/o mentor, but only did sales for a couple of the mutual fund/insurance firms.
Meanwhile, I’ve voraciously devoured information about the global macro-economic scene, to the irritation of my compatriots and associates (which is why I don’t talk about that anymore, save a little online). I’m these days a pretty faithful reader (though not subscriber) of Zerohedge for ‘the news’, and consider myself ‘well-stung’ in that my first Au purchases were in 2000 and Ag around ’05 and have been along for THAT ride ever since (thanks originally to Bill Bonner and his crew).
I also subscribe to Dudley Baker’s newsletters, where I sense lies an important, at minimum auxiliary, investment strategy – favorable being as warrants are listed on the TSX here, not the Pinks – and where I suspect application of Hidden Pivot technique may be greatly profitable, albeit challenged by very low volume in many cases.
So what is all this ‘in aid of’? The first time I came across your work I knew I was on to something real – all my instincts told me so and what I’ve seen of your touts, and risk-aversion, over the last few years have removed any lingering doubts, completely. I was very pleased that you stopped posting touts that could be ‘front-run’ online, and further to hear in the Session that you do not intend to ‘widely publish’ the Hidden Pivot Camo techniques either, as while it may be hard to imagine, the HFT algorithms may be approaching the Singularity, and I hope to wring some pennies out of the market before it all goes to hell, (next week or later 🙁 ). I’ve been setting up a trading station, with several screens and the bandwidth and CPU-speed to support them, and my last remaining challenge will be to choose suitable broker, data feeds and trading platform, whereupon I’ll paper-trade for a month and see what will come. This gets to a point regarding a question in the Session: –
One of the attendees asked you to walk him through the ‘steps of a trade’. I would have loved to hear your answer to his question, but it’s not your responsibility to ‘hold someone’s hand’ with such basics – as you’ve emphasized repeatedly in your teaching, discipline and dedication (work) are the only things that bring reward in this world – in trading as in all other areas of life. That said, however – Do you think it might be of value to have one of your associates set up a section on your site (subscriber access only) to lay out ‘pros&cons’ of different trading platforms, order protocols, strategies and tips, with examples, and perhaps promising vehicles and opportunities in the various market sectors on an occasional basis, suitable for ‘beginners’ as to volume and volatility? [I know, regards the vehicles and sectors, this is actively discussed on your Chat line, 24/7, but ‘newbies’ (I don’t dis-include myself) might find the pace and specificity of the trade talk a little daunting. Not that I’m sure that Rick’s Picks should be for ‘beginners’, fundamentally…rather for those, new or experienced, who comprehend the value in your markets understanding from the outset and will put in the ‘work’]
That’s my only ‘critique’, if that… What I took away from the Session was several in nature: –
1) The Reminder to set up a self-Grading system and trade book, and constantly strive to understand the parameters of success and failure.
2) The Two Camo Rules: – a) the impulse leg rule; and b) only taking entry at ‘x’ on A/B’s and B/C’s as single bars (and to ‘fear’ double ‘C’s)
3) A better instinctive feel for the ‘human forces’ behind impulse legs, and how crowded turning points in the pattern mean bears and/or bulls are NOT exhausted, and are at play. I believe being able to sense this, through years of practice of course, is what ultimately leads to great success in trading. I’ve even considered buying ‘pit noise’ to play in background to serve as ‘contrarian indicator’ (quiet + sweet pattern = camo hidden pivot entry), but maybe that’s a stretch given modern online realities.
4) That ‘pretty setups’ on lesser charts that fail usually mean market isn’t ‘ready to go’
5) The ‘Time-By Stop’ – Great! – at minimum for ‘stress-reduction’, giving a greater sense of ‘control’ over pulling the trigger on a trade.
6) and, That trends on 1 hr charts that run for days, make obvious signs when they’ll be breaking, using Hidden Pivot analysis.
So, that’s it of what stuck prominently in my noggin, though much more came in ‘by osmosis’, per usual. If I was set up today, I think I’d be looking to leg into buying puts on DZZ and GLL ETF’s, as it doesn’t appear to me that they’re priced properly given Japan, US & Canada job losses, and well, everything else that’s in the ‘real world’ as not defined by JPM, Scotia Macotta, HBSC and GS, et al. Not that I can read Options charts with any real understanding, which is why, G-d Willing, I’ll be looking to you to be my Guru. 🙂
Be Well, You and Yours – and hope to ‘c u soon’ in another Session, hopefully watching the ‘bars’ live, rather than ‘in theory’….
David S.
Ottawa ON
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Hi Rick
Herewith valuable insights I gained from the session:
1. The 2 criteria for camouflage, namely application of the impulse leg rules and look for single bars.
2. Why single bars are desirable, i.e. reversals with few people on board.
3. Grade your trade with extent of early draw down and time to become significantly profitable.
Also, a reminder to digitally package the ‘Camo’ rules extract from the current course manual.
On a general note, you may have noticed I am no longer a subscriber. This is partly because most of the action discussed in the forum occurs in my night time, but more so, as I mentioned on the webinar, I believe my comprehension of the HP system is sufficient for me not to require hand holding with touts. A testament to you and the system.
I was never entirely comfortable trading ‘p’ and ‘D’ points counter to the main trend. With bid/offer spreads and commissions (in the case of equities) my stops could never be as tight as you would advise. So over recent years I have tended to use alternative methods to enter a trade, ideally low in the B-C leg, and to use ‘p’ and ‘D’ as the all important take money off the table point.
Camouflage opens up the possibility of entering a trade with the main trend and will allow me to take the kind of 2-5 day swing trades with which I am most comfortable.
Kind regards
John S.(in Sydney)
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