The futures have slightly exceeded our longstanding downside target at 3.792, but the clarity of the correction pattern (inset, and judge for yourself) leaves precious little room for more weakness over the near term. Traders looking for a low-risk entry opportunity should focus on the 5-minute chart, where a buying signal was tripped at 3.795 early Tuesday morning at around 3:10 a.m. EDT. My guess is that there will be others if you’re attentive. _______ UPDATE (June 17): The ease with which the futures crushed a clear HP support at 3.792 (see inset, a fresh chart) implies that even lower prices are coming. The damage could be undone with an upthrust surpassing 3.868, but failing that, the futures will likely grope their way down to obvious structural support near last February’s 3.382 low. _______ UPDATE (June 18): The futures turned bullishly impulsive on the intraday charts at the top of yesterday’s rally, but that doesn’t alter the fact that the thrust came from lows that had exceeded an important and clear downside target. This suggest that lower lows will eventually be seen. For the time being, however, this vehicle should be traded with a bullish bias.
