Tuesday Pass-Line Bettors Finally Seven Out

Bears may have been pleasantly surprised yesterday when stocks closed lower on a Tuesday for the first time since January.  Has reality finally found a foothold in the fetid, bad-news-is-good-news precincts of Wall Street?  We shouldn’t get our hopes too high about this, since the herd still seems to believe that the uglier the economic news, the more likely central banking’s feather merchants are to continue pumping fraudulent money into shares and real estate. Still, you have to wonder how much harder the central bank will need to push on the string in order to compensate for a growing list of economic woes that now includes deepening recession in Europe, signs of serious economic fatigue in China, sharply rising U.S. mortgage rates, a cooling in auto sales and, most recently, news that America’s manufacturing sector is in its steepest slump since the recession allegedly ended in 2009.

The Great Recession (upper case) continues nevertheless — if not statistically, then at least in anecdotes drawn from the day-to-day lives of our friends, neighbors and former co-workers.  How ebullient could we be, given that statistical recovery has been far too feeble to have had much of an impact on jobs, wages or – here’s a concept seldom discussed any more — capital investment?  In fact, the lion’s share of investable dollars has gone mainly into housing, stocks and Treasury debt, creating just enough of a wealth effect to distract us from the actual economy’s persistent miseries.  But with home prices up 11% since last March, who cares about $5 gas, surreal increases in the cost of health insurance, the imminent bankruptcy of Detroit, and other trifling details of economic life in America?

Lowering Expectations

With Bernanke behind the curtain, and his lazy, economically ignorant lackeys in the news media ever eager to spin a bullish story, one could almost believe we’ll somehow muddle along indefinitely on sub-2% GDP growth.  It helps that the creation of a mere 170,000 jobs in a month — mainly through statistical fraud — appears to have become the new benchmark for economic progress. In fact, the economy would need to generate 250,000 new jobs per month to make a dent in The Great Recession. It’ll be interesting to see how Friday’s made-up payroll data affects the stock market. Good or bad, this tidbit has rarely dampened investors’ spirits for long. Maybe this time, in a week that saw stocks actually fall on a Tuesday, it will be different?

  • ter June 6, 2013, 7:16 pm

    Magus 12 Very late comment. I find Dorothy Parker’s variation on the adage as more applicable: ” You can lead a whore to culture,but you can’t make her (him) think”.

  • gary leibowitz June 6, 2013, 6:06 pm

    Let Rome burn seems the solution that Rick and most here believe should have happened in 08. No party in power, even one of your liking, would ever stand by and let that happen. Now that is a fantasy that would never get realized. Back to reality. Magus12 has most talking points that jive with mine. He has better control of the English language when it comes to expressing views in a clear concise manner. In the end though no matter how reasonable his response and counter-points he will be lumped in with me. This is a forum for like-minds to comfort and sooth during the rough patch before the veil is lifted. They are absolutely convinced of this and no amount or reason or logic will dissuade them. They found their villain, no need to look any further. Isn’t life easy when everything turns out in a black and white fashion.

    • Rick Ackerman June 6, 2013, 6:34 pm

      Thrilled to have two Garys blathering away in here, selectively ignoring key points made by anyone on the other side of any argument. Both of you guys are flagged for the day — for your own good. Find something useful to do, okay?

  • Bobby June 6, 2013, 12:55 pm

    Nice discussion today, I only wonder how one squeaks by on a million dollar next egg. No matter how I try I cannot seem to find that solution.

    &&&&&

    Move in with your kids, I think. RA

    • Bobby June 7, 2013, 4:06 am

      Good one, Rick. Only problem she beat me to the punch.
      Bobby

  • fallingman June 5, 2013, 6:22 pm

    Glad to see you guys not pulling any punches.
    Spot on and most excellent writing.

  • Rick Ackerman June 5, 2013, 4:46 pm

    Bernanke is a liar and a political stooge who, like his predecessor, has promoted, applied and doubled down on an economic policy so perverted and egregious that the only possible outcome is a Second Great Depression.

    You ought to read some Hayek, ‘Magus,’ since you evidently believe that free money is economically useful. RA

    • gary leibowitz June 5, 2013, 8:50 pm

      What would your solution have been? Yours or anyone else’s you feel that matches your goals.

      I haven’t heard one suggestion. Perhaps I wasn’t paying attention. I also thought that everyone concluded that the debacle in 08 couldn’t be reversed. Did I get that wrong also.

      My guess is that everyone here is mad that Bernanke had a stop-gap solution to give the economy time to mend. Once again, why does it matter if you are certain his actions will be futile in the whole scheme of things.

      I too must put blame squarely on congress. You would think there would be some urgency to start us on the right path instead of the same old political in-fighting.

      &&&&&

      Yes, you weren’t paying attention, as usual. From the get-go, ‘our’ solution has been to allow the markets to clear, letting the chips fall where they may. Instead, the Fed has stimulated a brand new housing bubble; encouraged huge new borrowing for the ‘consumption’ of automobiles; forced untold sums of yield-starved capital toward malinvestment and greater risk; caused stocks to rise at a cost of trillions of dollars worth of mostly failed stimulus, every penny of which will weigh as a claim against future output; and cheated savers so that retirees can barely scrape by on a million-dollar nest egg.

      But yes, I agree with your implicit point that Bernanke did what was politically feasible. Still, because the result is a Big Lie that cannot end other than catastrophically, there is no point in arguing he did the right thing. In the hierarchy of blame, Easy Al Greenspan should be hanged in the public square, Bernanke pilloried for a month. RA

    • Redwilldanaher June 5, 2013, 10:23 pm

      Wrong as per the usual Gary. My guess is that most here have never cared for the Fed’s disastrous meddling in the markets and the economy. Most here want to return to structural soundness as opposed to the worshipping of butchers and kleptogarchs as you are only too willing to engage in. If you’re really for the little guy and as brilliant as you purport yourself to be, why does it remain lost on you that your beloved democrats and Fed stooges serve Tptb to the extreme detriment of all us little guys?

    • allen June 5, 2013, 11:56 pm

      Amen to that Rick.

  • magus12 June 5, 2013, 3:44 pm

    It’s a curiosity to me how Bernanke is the bad guy in all of this. He has made it plain to Congress that they must get to work on job creation but, no, instead we get 38 votes to repeal Romneycare and all culture wars all the time. Meanwhile, Bernanke has kept interest rates at nearly 0% which, to any sane human being who knows a thing or two about when to borrow and for what purpose(s), means that now is the time to attend to our decrepit infrastructure. Massively. With only principle to pay back. And lasting good left behind instead of just “have you looked for work in the last 2 weeks? ” And all those jobs the private sector would have to create in order to furnish the goods and services to all that massive national infrastructure would demand. Like sandwiches. And coffee. And concrete. And steel. And railroad ties. And machinery. To be fair, Obama hasn’t done much with the bully pulpit to push the argument. He merely caves.

    Yes. Bernanke has been pushing on a string and continuously telling Congress to cut the crap, pay attention to the joblessness that is killing this country. Nope. Perhaps now that Rep. Bachmann will be retiring, we won’t have a 39th vote in just over 30 months to repeal Romneycare. Oh, probably not. We’ll just have another know-nothing nihilist pick up the banner and demand another vote that will go nowhere. And unemployed Joe Sixpack and Jane Lunchpail will continue looking for that third part-time really low-pay job just to keep peanut butter in the cupboard.

    I just hope that Obama won’t be appointing Geithner, that tax-dodging former head of the IRS as the new Fed Chair. But he probably will. A pox on both parties. Bernanke did his best but as the saying goes, you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him … how’s that go? Think? Nah, that’s not it……

    • John Jay June 5, 2013, 5:26 pm

      magus,

      “the joblessness that is killing this country” has been US Government policy for decades, it is not an innocent mistake or blundering.
      LBJ was backing Open Borders way back in the 1950s before Ike slammed that door shut temporarily.
      The proposed Immigration Reform bill will triple the number of H1B Visas issued, and they are working on yet another Free Trade Agreement, this time for the Pan Asian Market.
      The mess this country is in was strictly by design.
      All their talk of “jobs” and “recovery” is just going through the motions of having any concern for us.
      They have no concern at all, they despise us, one and all.
      And Ben is the proverbial “errand boy sent by grocery clerks”.
      It’s all too sad, and all too true.
      All you can do is accept it and adapt to survive.

    • magus12 June 5, 2013, 11:41 pm

      @ John Jay – I don’t quarrel with your argument at all. But, to be fair again, it was Nixon who “opened China” as the Armand Hammers of the day wanted (Hammer, BTW, traveled quite a bit behind “the Iron Curtain” and was quite fond of the idea of free trade with the Soviets). Forty years ago, we found ourselves dependent upon OPEC for oil and gas and China and the rest of the Third World could only afford to buy Coca-Cola and KFC. And all the restive multinationals at the time looked at all those populations behind “the Iron Curtain” and dreamt of the day and the ways and means to get all those people to be able to afford what the multinationals sold – the Maytags, the Fords, the Caterpillars. It was Henry Ford who paid his workers an enormous sum for their wages in order to have them able to buy what he and they made. So the multinationals, following future Supreme Powell’s advice started buying the Congress. Dwayne Andreas at ADM was one of the first and most famous and showed the way to bribe both parties. So what if the American middle class lost its jobs. As Milton Friedman advised – and Maggie Thatcher agreed – it is the work of the corporation to benefit its shareholders, good works for the benefit of the nation were not to be contemplated in the calculous. And Thatcher? Reagan’s ally said “There’s no such thing as society”.

      @RA – the latest on the Hayek set of theorems has been the resounding disproving of Reinhart and Rogoff. The unemployment payments to those looking for work in an environment in which we have the two tiers of the executive suite and the hamburger flippers has largely been wasted and tragic in both the cases of those workers who will continue to fall down the class structure with the ladder willingly taken away and tragic for the future of this country. While unemployment pay is taxed as income, it is still a wasted drain on the nation’s purse if the multinationals who’ve bought the last several decades of the political system sit on enormous profits and only hire overseas or stuff their own pockets. Listening to pols of all stripes, they’ve all agreed that all those middle class jobs that went overseas will never return. Well, we’ll see. Who knows, maybe the shipping costs make clothing in Pakistani fire traps uneconomical, maybe paying $1,000 per hour for your several tax attorneys and former IRS tax accountants to press on all those tax loopholes while this nation goes the barbaric route altogether to kill their encroaching, starving neighbor who wants in to the reinforced shelter for what they will begin to see as “their share of the food”. High flown airy fairy economic theory, particularly of the kind that has been disproven for its spreadsheet mistakes, but more importantly for not factoring the nature of the elemental need to feed oneself and one’s family even when all the means of production you contributed to years ago but were given away to the Chinese will never return and you. can’t. find. work. Hayek’s advice, like Friedman’s, Reagan’s and Thatcher’s, only addressed the wants of the already haves but will never have enough so long as there’s someone richer than me. As for the rest of the 95% who find themselves slipping down the rathole of a burgled economy and one-time manufacturing wonder…eh, let ’em eat insects. I hear that’s all the rage these days in some quarters of the “thought leaders'” advice nouveau cuisine. Here, eat an ant. Good protein.

      &&&&&

      Seems you’ve got better footing in the dismal science than I had inferred, Magus, and so I’m mystified by your defense of Bernanke’s attempt at alchemy. Anyway, if Americans had invested mainly in capital equipment rather than in real estate over the last 40 years, our manufacturing sector would be trouncing China’s and Korea’s. Instead, we are seeing real wages fall, as they must, to make the U.S. competitive again. RA

    • magus12 June 6, 2013, 2:57 am

      @ra – My defense of Bernanke is based solely on the following facts: whatever the economy, people need to eat or they get pissed off and either commit crime (the solo version of overturning the existing misery) or creating revolution or civil war (the organized version of overturning the existing misery). I absolutely agree with you that the too big to fail banks should have been allowed to fail but when you have the elites of both parties and both the political and private sector colluding to keep the party going (if only to line their own pockets), then the only escape from widespread criminality as seen in the 1930s or the widespread low level revolutions all over the world in the face of an austerity that only hurts the already devastated while continuing to fatten the bank accounts of the already bloated…. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that once the economy (at least the “official figures of unemployment” are concerned) reaches a certain level, interest rates will rise, those living on fixed incomes (and dependent on a SS system under constant attack by the Wall Streeters who cannot wait to get their hands on a healthy percentage of THAT pot of gold) will breathe a bit easier, the stock market will take a big tumble and who knows whether it will be Katy bar the door or incremental inflation? The parties most responsible for the absolute travesty we have undergone – including the rise and fall (and soon another rise?) in gold, the stock market bubble that has only increased the wealth of the super wealthy and the corporate hiring overseas, what appears to be another real estate bubble (although it appears to be the new playground of the guys who made a killing on the stock market but are now making a killing in buying up houses to become absentee landlords or vintners)…. Frankly, I see Bernanke as the one of the only people who sees that the politicians who’ve gorged on campaign contributions won’t be quitting that game anytime soon because there is no groundswell to change the rules. So they won’t act for the good of the country – all of the country: the young, the old, the working poor, the destitute, the desperate middle class…. I don’t see him as a liar. I see him as one of the few who has been preaching in the wilderness while we get endless, endless crap out of DC, both parties. Hell, if you look at it, greater DC is one of the few metro areas that hasn’t experienced any downturn at all. As for Greenspan – I agree. He should be tarred and feathered and, along with Arthur Laffer, have his portrait removed from the gilded halls in DC and Wall Street.

      &&&&&

      You seem to believe we’ll avoid total ruin via some middle way that will merely widen the gulf between the haves and have-nots. My argument has been that EVERYONE is going to get taken down, even the super-rich, and that hard times will be so very hard that even the rancid, corrupt political system under which we live may not survive.

      I can imagine only a relative handful of ultra-wealthy survivors in this scenario. Buffett, for one. He has been anchoring Berkshire’s portfolio not in real estate, junk bonds and other private-equity fads, but in bedrock, including the food chain (Heinz) and rail transit (Burlington Northern).

      Your arguments descend to Gary’s level when you talk about Social Security being a ‘pot of gold’ waiting to be seized by unnamed bad guys. In fact, there is not a dime in the criminally misnamed Social Security Trust Fund; it is simply a black hole of debt. As for the inflation you foresee, there is no possibility that the implosion of a nearly quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble can produce such a mild outcome. It is either a ruinous hyperinflation that we face, a deflationary collapse, or the one-two punch of both. In the meantime, it is foolish to think that any of us, even the the super-rich and the supposedly omnipotent, all-knowing bad guys, can purport to know which assets — other, perhaps, than prime farmland — will have value after the day of reckoning. _____ RA

    • magus12 June 6, 2013, 4:15 am

      Addendum to RA – I am puzzled by your assertion that the US should have invested in mainly capital equipment instead of real estate 40 years ago. I have a couple of grounds. First, 40 years ago we had the beginning of family formation by us boomers – 75 million and upwards of those needing housing and, at that time, what the US experienced as hyperinflation. Interest rates at that point went over 15%, largely because of the guns and butter policies followed by both parties (again). We had the first oil crisis and the increasingly insane costs of running the 20-year Vietnam War. The most most powerful sectors that form the basis of our economy are housing and all the industries that feed into that, and cars and all the industries that feed into that. The second ground stems from that – we were financially fortunate enough to afford a car for each teenager who reached 16 years old so that part of the economy could keep going and the only competitor at that time was Japan with its low-cost, very reliable entry-level cars and trucks. So…relatively few problems for a myopic domestic sector and its influence on policies in DC. We gave up the low-cost, reliable, entry-level cars and trucks to Japan and they therefore gained the foothold they needed in order to 20 years or so later come up with Accords, Infinitis and Acuras. (Pay no attention to the bloated exec suites at GM and Ford who reaped huge salaries, bonuses and stock options, thanks to their influence on not only fuel efficiency legislation but tax policy. Chrysler suffered from another problem: Iaccoca, perhaps one of the best car men this nation ever produced, was not allowed to compete with Ford and GM overseas in return for the gov’t loan. But that’s another issue for another day.) No, the second basis for what I surmise (perhaps mistakenly) with your assertion is that a household only needs one washer and dryer, one fridge and maybe a freezer. Yes, the kids will need those, too, as they go out on their own but, as my father at the time said (he sold materials handling equipment), the domestic market was saturated for the serious capital goods – the Caterpillers, the Hysters, etc. GM, Ford – already in Europe but by golly, look at all those Asians with their rickshaws….wouldn’t it be glorious to pierce that market. These are the capital goods that had already saturated the domestic market and because the Japanese were turning out more reliable equipment, that squeezed everything even further. It used to be that you traded in your old car at 3 years because it was already a drain on your pocketbook – it wasn’t made to last beyond 3 years…until those damned Japanese brought in their reliability. These days, we may sell Caterpillers overseas but I don’t see many in the US. I see Kubotas, Huskvarnas….

      As for wages must fall to compete – how come that’s reserved only for the little people? And in this age of which country is the off-shore banking haven for which country (and the US is one for many other countries), a couple years ago Obama signed a “free trade agreement” with Panama. So, what does Panama offer that we as a nation could possibly want? Well, 95% of us would say “Nothing.” But the other 5% and, with the opening of Panama Canal able to accommodate ginormous freighters? Just another stopping point for the tax dodges to be written in and another place for the owners of those shippers to hide their money tax free. And still no employment in the US.

      &&&&&

      Save your breath, Magus. Like Bernanke and his benighted minions, you’ve bought into the very essence of The Big Lie –that consumption begets wealth. RA

    • magus12 June 6, 2013, 2:36 pm

      Ah, RA, you revert to the ad hominem. I could respond in kind and lump you in with Beck the Bizarre. But too much of the future is unknown. Nor do I suppose that “consumption” is the answer to all our troubles. I prefer finding a way out of the disaster when the political and private sector big wigs fail to do their part. Bernanke offered a way out that was utterly wasted – zero % debt to employ sufficient numbers of unemployed to prime the pump and create the demand that will rebuild the infrastructure that threatens to give way. Note that China has invested billions in infrastructure which goes unused at present and China is building Africa’s infrastructure at the price of first demand on their basic materials for China’s inchoate consumption economy.

      Otherwise, I’m fine being joined in your “argument” such as it is and I repeat – how is it that only the little folks in the US are required to sacrifice? You might look into David Caye Johnston’s work on taxation as he has expertise sorely lacking in today’s juvenile society – and pay particular to his lessons when contemplating our “free trade agreement” with Panama wherein the super freighters house the office equipment to change the tax situs for the goods coming over from Asia and Africa to save what is still majority American owned multinationals and, at the same time, afford the principles of all outfits involved in the shipments to hide their money tax free in Panama, our new best friend. BTW, what else can you think of that Panama can offer the US market besides hats?

      &&&&&

      I’m done, Magus. I have a real life to get back to. RA

    • Carol June 6, 2013, 3:29 pm

      Magus12 wrote >> “Bernanke offered a way out that was utterly wasted – zero % debt to employ sufficient numbers of unemployed to prime the pump and create the demand that will rebuild the infrastructure that threatens to give way.”

      Lol Bernanke’s low rates do NOT induce businesses to employ more people and do just the OPPOSITE. Low rates give business the wherewithal to invest in software and hardware (with low/no interest rate debt) to REPLACE or supplant former employees with automation or higher productivity tools.

      Your love of Bernanke and his totally fraudulent “low interest rates” is very much misplaced.

    • magus12 June 6, 2013, 3:48 pm
    • magus12 June 6, 2013, 4:45 pm

      @Carol – you completely missed the point. The private sector was never going to restart employment in any meaningful way in the US anyway. They’ve sat on trillions in profits earned in the US and “repatriated” a few years ago at the rate of 5% taxation instead of the 35% rate they constantly cry about. That being the case, if the politicians in the back pockets of Wall Street and the multinationals refuse to pick up the slack, preferring instead to further fleece the taxpayers who bailed them out 5 years ago by buying up residential real estate in bulk and playing the stock market as the house while the rest of us try make a bit in the stock market, THEY are your bad guys. Bernanke offered another way out and jawboned the crooked Congress to do their jobs. They refused because the Supremes gave them the incentive to screw the country and pocket the largesse that Wall Street and the multinationals lavish upon them. That way was to finance rebuilding infrastructure at zero interest (you prefer to rebuild under inflationary rates?!?) instead of giving the money in unemployment, asking if those unfortunates had been looking for work the last two weeks while Wall Street and the multinationals refused to hire anyone in the US. GE? Obama’s BFF? The money went overseas, even the high end programmers. And GE not only paid zero corporate taxes they got a refund. You mistake my recognition of a secondary route out of the morass for “love for Bernanke”. I merely recognize his efforts both with providing the funding to do that pump priming and lecturing a thoroughly corrupt Congress to do the right thing by the American people. But perhaps you prefer Maggie Thatcher’s ethos: “there’s no such thing as society.” Until it bites you in the ass.

  • John Jay June 5, 2013, 3:00 pm

    I think what happened was that Ben was embarrassed
    by how predictable his actions had become.
    I mean, come on, if it always comes up Red every time the Fed spins the roulette wheel, everyone is going to start laughing.
    So, it’s best to let Black come up once in a while anyway!

    I’m much more interested in how far Ben lets the ZB/ZN fall before he leans on the roulette table for the millionth time.
    Right about now, Ben and his minions are likely testing the waters for a pickup in actual demand for all the government paper he holds.
    He has to slowly let legitimate price discovery creep back in without losing control of interest rates and spooking the world financial system.
    The member banks at the Fed might be thinking of old man Kennedy’s reflection on financing JFK’s Presidential Campaign.
    “I’m not paying for any landslides!”
    Good advice from an old school master manipulator!

    &&&&&&

    Technical evidence suggests the Fed starts to get nervous, and intervenes aggressively, only after the long bond futures have somewhat exceeded an important Hidden Pivot correction target. With respect to the blended June contract, that implies a drop to as low as 135^05. This would imply quite a spike in yields, since the futures are currently trading for 141^13. With mortgage rates already at levels that could kill the housing bubble, it’ll be interesting to see how long They let this game of chicken go on. RA