The lengthy corrective pattern shown isn’t classically pretty, but it does yield a downside target that is acceptable as a maximum theoretical low for the steep decline begun a little more than a month ago. This is a “blended” chart, so we can’t rely on the kind of precision we’d need to bottom-fish the 137^18 target with a tight stop-loss. However, it’s good enough for analytical purposes, and for determining whether the Fed still has complete control of long-term yields. In the past, aggressive interventions have typically occurred when the future were close to “maxing out” an important Hidden Pivot target. Although we should expect more of the same this time, we should also be prepared for something different — i.e., evidence that market forces may finally be exerting a discernible influence.
