The futures have rallied robustly without having quite reached a 129^03 bear market target given here in July for the September contract. Moreover, the initial rally from the low has generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, suggesting it will prove to be more than a flash-in-the-pan. Notice that the appearance of a double top with a high at 130^30 made in early September has cloaked the strong impulsiveness of the thrust, creating an attractive camouflage opportunity with short-term upside potential to 131^25. _______ UPDATE (September 17): Yesterday’s fleeting burst missed my rally target by half a point (13/32), suggesting T-Bonds could spend a week or two basing before they are able to launch a sustained rally. However, the outlook would improve significantly if buyers get second wind for a move exceeding the two labeled peaks. Please note as well that a ‘B-C’ pullback from the small zone in-between them (see inset) could yield an exceptional opportunity for ‘camouflage’ traders to bull up on-the-cheap. _______ UPDATE (September 23): A pattern similar to the one I’d sketched earlier has unfolded, tripping a buy signal at 131^22. If you used my recommendation to get long, please let me know in the chat room. I’ll establish tracking guidance if I hear from at least two subscribers who filled the order. In any case, the first profit taking opportunity on the daily chart lies at p=132^13 (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (September 25, 3:40 p.m.): The futures have spiked today to within three ticks of the very bullish, 133^26 rally target I’d flagged a while back in the chart (see inset). That makes this vehicle a short, at least for the moment. However, if the futures do not pause for at least a few days at such a crystal-clear target, it would imply that bulls are just getting warmed up. _______ UPDATE (October 10): The futures have spent the last three weeks in what now looks a consolidation. In any case, it affirms that the August low we’d anticipated for so long was an important one.
