This proxy for junior gold miners has slid $12, or 25%, since we last looked at it in September. It is now perched delicately on a ledge, pennies from generating a fresh bearish impulse leg on the daily chart via a move beneath August’s key low at 35.56. It is also $1.12 above the 34.99 ‘D’ target shown, which if achieved would easily take out the August low. The most opportune trade I can see for the near-term would be signaled by an uptrending abc pattern on the lesser charts following a breakdown below 35.56. The rally, coming after bulls’ stops have been run, might not go very far, but it would almost surely be worth trading. _______ UPDATE (10:52 a.m. EDT): This morning’s plunge has bottomed so far at 35.00, a penny from the Hidden Pivot target given above. GDXJ was a speculative buy down there, but we shouldn’t assume it is the ultimate bear-market low merely because the target was so clear and compelling. ______ UPDATE (October 13, 5:15 p.m.): The Hidden Pivot support had given way by day’s end, implying more downside over the near term to the 33.56 target shown, at least. It will become an odds-on bet once the 34.53 midpoint support (show as a dotted red line) is taken out, but either number can nevertheless be bottom-fished by camouflageurs. _______ UPDATE (October 17): My bias would turn bullish if the stock can muster a push above the external peak at 36.26 shown in the chart. A pullback from just above it would offer an easy opportunity to get long, especially if the trade is initiated camouflage-style. _______ UPDATE (10:57 a.m. EDT): This morning’s frenetic short-squeeze has generated the first bullish impulse leg in a month on the hourly chart. The next thrust will have to exceed 38.88 to keep hope alive, however. Bulls should try to make hay while the sun shines._______ UPDATE (October 22, 9:30 p.m. EDT): The opening burst gapped past the D target of a rally pattern that had projected to 39.43. Bulls are clearly in charge and need only achieve 41.06 to stay that way for at least another day or two before taking a breather. _______ UPDATE (October 28, 3:32 a.m. EDT): Friday’s bear trap set up a rally that indicates more upside over the near term to the 42.49 target of the pattern shown, or if any higher, to the 43.53 target of the larger pattern. ______ UPDATE (October 30, 10;48 p.m. EDT): And now we have a bull trap, but far nastier than the bear bamboozler that preceded it. This has not only negated the rally targets given above, it has placed the burden of proof on buyers. They’ll need to push this brick to at least 41.05 this week to get back on the offensive.
