DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:157.34)

Yesterday’s nasty bull-trap opening peaked at 157.80, just 0.02 points from the rally target I’d proffered the day before. No subscribers reported buying December 145 puts as I’d suggested, presumably because the puts hit their intraday low only fleetingly on the opening rotation. The 0.29 price was somewhat higher than I’d estimated, but this is good news since it indicates that the market makers themselves were eager buyers, taking advantage of a flurry of panicky sell-at-the-market orders from rubes who were spooked by DIA’s illusory show of strength.

Fortunately, we already held a dozen of the puts for 0.37, since our entry strategy has been to scale-in puts as their price fell. Our bearish play was based more on a gut hunch than on Hidden Pivot targets, but it has enabled us to stake out a bearish position at an excellent price.  Although we can’t be certain yet that we have caught THE top, we have most surely caught an opportune top. DIA plummeted from the opening bar, finishing the day with a fresh, bearish impulse leg on the 30-minute chart (see inset).  For now, let your profits run.  ______ UPDATE (November 10, 7:51 p.m. EST): DaBoyz wrung an impressive short-squeeze from Friday’s employment news, but let’s see how long they can sustain the hoax, given that no one but our own Gary Liebowitz actually believes the economy is strengthening. The squeeze has sufficient power to reach the 158.51 target shown, which could push our puts down by as much as 15-20 cents. Since this could happen fleetingly on the opening bar, I’ll recommending holding the position no matter what happens at the bell. Check back here or in the chat room for an update, though, since it may become prudent to cut our losses intraday. _______ UPDATE (November 12, 9:33 p.m.): The Diamonds look to be consolidating for a move higher, but we’ll stick with our position for now. Even though the options were bought as ‘keepers’, it is not my intention to hold them until they waste to zero.