GOOG – Google (Last:1010.84)

Google’s weakness in recent days has brought the stock down to the sweet spot for the eight November 1000-1010-1020 call butterfly spreads we hold. Subscribers legged into this position for a 3.00 credit, guaranteeing a profit of at least $2400 no matter what the stock does.  The spread could have been sold on Thursday’s closing marks for a 1.80 credit, yielding additional gains of $1440, for a total of $3840.  Our maximum theoretical profit would be $10400 with the stock trading $1010 next Friday, when the calls expire. However, that implies covering (i.e., buying back) the 1010s we are short for nothing, selling the 1000s that we are long for $10 ($1000) apiece, and writing off the 1020s as a complete loss. In practice, we should start covering (i.e., exiting) at least some of the spreads now, while the stock is hovering near $1010. Accordingly, I’ll recommend offering four of them to close for $2.50, day order.  A modest rally or blip up to $1010 at any point in the day would put that price well within reach. The spread will widen to our benefit if GOOG oscillates around $1010 next week, but any sharp move higher and lower would probably push it down to $2 or lower. _______ UPDATE (November 11, 8:00 p.m. EST): We couldn’t have asked for a better opportunity to exit our butterfly position. With four days to go before the November options expire, Google has fallen to the 1010 strike on which the spread was centered.  This has made it an easy sale, and on yesterday’s closing marks subscribers could have come away with $4.50 per spread (by covering the two 1010s you are short for a total of $14.60 and simultaneously selling the 1000 and 1020 calls you are long for 19.10 total.  Added to the $3.00 credit subscribers reported receiving when they legged into the position, this would bring the theoretical profit to $6000. For any position that remains, continue to offer it for $5.00 or better, with $1.00 discretion. Best bet for today:  Before the opening bell, offer the butterfly as a spread order for $4.80. If the stock opens near $1010, you’ll have an excellent chance of getting filled. _______UPDATE (November 15): Wednesday’s nut-so buying spree pushed the butterfly well above our optimal range, but we were very lucky to have had GOOG oscillating around the 1010 strike to which our position’s maximum profit had been pegged for four full days, two of them during expiration week. The spread was an easy sale at $3.50 over that period, so I’ll score the position as a $5200 winner on paper.