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GCG14 – February Gold (Last:1212.90)

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Last weeks breachWith last week’s low, the June 28 bottom has been breached. The selling also generated a bearish impulse leg (see inset) on the weekly chart with a new bear-market low that will have caused many bulls to throw in the towel.  That is the reason for this morning’s modest rally: stops got run beneath the June low, lightening the futures of erstwhile profit-takers on this bounce.  It will need to be quite strong — at least $50-$60, as noted here earlier — to suggest that a major low is in and that this is not merely a dead-cat bounce. In purely technical terms, it would take a rally of about $150 to turn the  weekly chart bullish (for the first time since August). Specifically, a print at 1362.40 is needed, and the rally would have to be uncorrected on the weekly chart once it exceeds 1267.50.

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