Gold’s hysterical, engineered short-squeeze this morning has thus far failed to surpass the 1268.00 ‘external’ peak whose breach I’d said was critical to the bullish case for the near-to-intermediate-term. The so-far high, achieved just moments ago, is 1260.00, and although that hardly precludes our benchmark being achieved, we’ll remain cautious until such time as this actually occurs. Incidentally, like nearly all gold rallies we’ve seen in recent months, this one would have been extremely difficult to catch, even for the nimblest, most astute ‘camouflage’ trader. _______ UPDATE (12:50 p.m. EST): A nearly $50 surge from yesterday’s low has failed by just 0.60 to surpass my 1268.00 benchmark, but this is hardly reason for despair. Although it suggests that bulls are less than omnipotent, at least at this stage of a potentially major move, we shouldn’t be too quick to write them off with skepticism. Yes, it’s true that nearly everyone now expects imminent tightening via a tapering of QE. Although that would have bearish implications for bullion, we should remain open-minded to a possible ‘surprise’ in the form of an announcement that some new, ostensibly inflationary policy will be tried. That could be bullish for bullion, and we should therefore reserve our skepticism, even if today’s upthrust missed being a ‘blitzkrieg’ by a few measly ticks.
