March Silver still needs to pop above the November 6 ‘external’ peak at 22.080 (see inset) before we can breathe a sigh of relief. The recent peak failed by 11 cents to do this. Last Friday’s rally suggests there’s enough power remaining to drive this outcome, but it will need to occur without a b-c correction on the daily chart to imply there is nascent-bull-market strength behind the move from the January 30 low. Camouflageurs, please note that Tuesday’s 21.980 peak was about as subtly impulsive as it gets. The bullish ABC remains intact as of this moment and implies a long entry would be triggered by a 21.542 print. _______ UPDATE (10:27 a.m. EST): The trade is a ‘go’, having tripped the entry price and subsequently reached the midpoint pivot at 21.708. That made it possible to take a partial profit on an assumed initial position of four contracts. The remaining two contracts would have a cost basis of 20.924 if the theoretical gain of $835 per contract is imputed to them. If anyone actually did this trade, please let me know in the chat room and I will establish tracking guidance. For now, you should use a break-even stop at 21.370, just below the point ‘C’ of the pattern. A third contract should be exited at D=22.040. ______ UPDATE (February 24, 1:36 a.m.): After popping to within six cents of the 22.040 target, March Silver has swooned Sunday night, stopping out any tightly stopped positions that may have remained after Friday’s partial-profit-taking opportunity. Since we have a relatively straightforward and painless way to get long again, there is no need to abide swings against us of more than a few pennies while we wait for the rally that will take silver to new recovery highs. At present, using the camouflage technique, that would imply an attempt to leverage a b-c pullback from between any of the three labeled peaks and the ‘marquee high’ at 21.975.
