The bonds have easily achieved every bullish benchmark that I’ve set here in the last month — and then some — but the recent stall three ticks shy of the 135^06 target shown was to be expected. If the futures can get through it relatively quickly — meaning within perhaps 3-4 days — that would imply there is still considerable buying power remaining to be spent. On the weekly chart, it would take just a modest rally to push the futures past two ‘external’ peaks, creating a very powerful impulse leg that would have bullish implications for the intermediate to long-term. The higher of the two peaks lies at 136^00, less than a single point above the recent top. ______ UPDATE (February 10, 10:08 p.m. EST): The accumulation process, assuming that’s what it is, is unfolding slowly, and the bonds are in fact in the throes of a bearish dance that could carry to as low as 131^30, or perhaps 131^12, before they find traction. _______ UPDATE (February 19, 11:06 p.m.): The March contract has put in a potentially important low at 132^00, two ticks from my target. If you got long down there please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position. _______ UPDATE (February 24, 2:00 a.m.): The low has held so far, but because no fills were reported, I have not established tracking for this vehicle. The futures are in screw-the-pooch mode at the moment, but not without some potential ‘buying’ set-ups not far away on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (February 28, 3:17 a.m.): The futures are munching through midpoint resistance at 134^16. Once through it, they should be presumed bound for a minimum 137^00, a Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart.
