Silver has lagged gold so far this year, but it could make up for it with an unpaused push exceeding the 23.145 peak shown. Note, however, that even if the move happens, it will have required a pullback and a running start from the 21.025 low recorded last week. That would have mildly negative implications down the road, since it would suggest that silver buyers, at least for now, have reservations that do not seem to be troubling buyers of gold. Silver could eventually come to lead the charge with an uncorrected rally that blows past not only the peak at 23.145, but the next at 24.780. I’ve labeled these price points in the chart for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (March 10, 8:10 p.m. EST): The pullback from February’s peak has at least temporarily negated any possibility of a powerful impulse leg such as the one described above. Now, unless the next upthrust surpasses the three labeled tops without correcting, we would have to infer that Silver’s 2014 rally is not destined for greatness. _______ UPDATE (March 17, 1:44 a.m. EDT): A rally with immediate potential to 23.025 has stalled precisely at the 21.818 midpoint pivot associated with that number (see inset, a new chart). I expect the midpoint resistance to fall soon, but camouflageurs and Pivoteers should note in the meantime that any breakout above it would trip a buy signal. _______ UPDATE (March 20): The May contract has maxed out the corrective pattern shown (see inset, a new chart), implying that conditions will be more felicitous for bulls in the days ahead. _______ UPDATE (March 26, 1:04 a.m.): The futures appear to be in distribution below my worst-case target — not exactly a healthy sign. Bulls could remedy this today with an upthrust exceeding 20.260. That would create a positive impulse leg on the hourly chart.
