Last Thursday’s leap well past the midpoint pivot at 557.24 all but guaranteed that the rally will continue to at least 620.92, its ‘D’ sibling. Boarding this late in the move will be like trying to leap onto a speeding train, so I won’t even pretend to guide you specifically or in great detail. But you can be quite confident in the target itself, and you can play it very conservatively by buying or legging into cheap calendar spreads at the 620 strike. The May 9 / May 2 620 call spread could be bought for around 1.16 on Monday’s closing marks, but I’d shoot for 1.00 or less, day order, with the stock trading 590 or higher. Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (April 30, 11:32 a.m. ET): Subscribers reported filling the spread below 0.60 yesterday, but I’ll use a price of 0.65 for tracking purposes. When the spread traded up to 1.25 a short while ago, I suggested taking a partial profit to reduce the cost basis of the position that remains. Assuming an exit at 1.20, we now hold two spreads (or half of whatever original position was entered) with a cost basis of 0.10. These are keepers, to be held for a rally to 620.92 or higher before next Friday’s expiration. _______ UPDATE (9:49 p.m.): Just a small change — an upward adjustment of the rally target to 626.60. This is notwithstanding the nasty $10 shakedown late in yesterday’s session. _______ UPDATE (May 9): The spread died, costing us pocket change. Apple will get to $626 if and when the broad averages break out of the asphyxiating range they’ve traded in for three months. Calendar and butterfly spreads in this stock pegged to the $620 strike are still a good bet, but only if their cost can be reduced to near-zero, as we did above. Meanwhile, with respect to the “if and when” clause above, Doug Behnfield has reminded me of an old saying about bear markets: ‘The road to hell is paved with those who had expected one more rally.’
