The bearish impulse leg that bottomed on Monday at 1803.25 was a strong one (see inset), having exceeded no fewer than three prior lows, two of them ‘external’, on the daily chart. A retracement is overdue, and I would be very surprised if the futures were to first rally above Thursday’s 1867.50 high. Whatever happens, we should pay very close attention to sellers’ next encounter with a midpoint-pivot support on this chart, since its serious breach would suggest that the long-term bull market is either waning or over. Assuming Wednesday’s 1857.00 peak endures as a short-term top, buying at the implied midpoint pivot at 1824.25 would become a very enticing speculation. Please note as well that an 1840.75 print (i.e., the green line) would trip a short to at least 1824.25.
