We’ve seen Hidden Pivot targets work precisely so often that when the low of Priceline’s $133 power dive missed our target by $3, as happened yesterday, some of you may have wondered how we could have gone so far wrong. There are a couple of reasons, actually. For one, the target lay just 28 cents from a key low at 1103.90 recorded back in February that would have been as obvious to traders as a Times Square billboard. As such, it promised support and a possible bounce, and that’s why the stock was more or less ordained to trampoline from just above or below it. Another factor that may have worked against pinpoint accuracy is that the A-B impulse leg was a real dog, with nary a qualifying ‘external’ low anywhere in the picture. Under the circumstances, expecting this ersatz AB leg to have produced a dead-center bullseye at the D target would be like expecting a hunchbacked dwarf to win the Miss America Pageant.
All that aside, the stock’s nearly $40 rebound in the space of two hours may have seemed impressive, but we shouldn’t fail to notice that it failed to surpass an ‘external’ peak at 1149.98 made earlier in the day on the way south. Did buyers chicken out? Will the shortfall prove fatal? Rather than speculate, we’ll simply wait to see whether they succeed today. If they do, with a high that only slightly exceeds 1149.98 before pulling back, it could set up a low-risk buying opportunity. If I’m in the chat room at that time, please nudge me and I’ll show you exactly how to leverage it. _______ UPDATE (11:23 p.m. ET): The nearly $60 rally from Monday’s lows may seem impressive, but one must zoom all the way down to the 30-minute chart to find a bullish impulse leg in it. My immediate rally target is 1169.57, but hold the oohs and ahhs until we’ve seen whether the stock can push past it without breaking a sweat. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 11:02 a.m.): It’s ‘off to the races’ again this morning. The stock is up nearly $30 so far today, trading as high as 1188. Look for the rally to continue to at least 1195.52, a Hidden Pivot resistance that is likely to show some stopping power. ______ UPDATE (May 4, 11:47 p.m.): Friday’s $16 head-fake died a dollar above our target before relapsing to an intraday low at $1170. The stock seems likely to follow the broad market’s lead Monday morning, but I’d be wary about taking the first buy signal if one occurs. ______ UPDATE (May 6, 10:44 p.m.): Action-seekers should try bottom-fishing at p=1131.25 (see inset, a fresh chart) with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. If your up to a ‘camouflage’ entry, swing away! _______ UPDATE (May 7, 8:30 p.m.): The stock took a $14 bounce from 1132.29, but it proved short-lived when shares relapsed to an intraday low at 1124.41. I did not establish tracking guidance because no one reported filling a bid in the chat room. Because the midpoint support was trashed, a ‘D’ target at 1068.17 is now in play.