The massive ABCD rally pattern shown may not be pretty, but its ‘D’ target at 19206 still looks good enough for government work. However, a move to that height should not be regarded as a done deal, since the Dow has already had two false starts trying to push past midpoint pivots generated by Q4’s impulsive thrust. The hesitation suggests at the very least that the Great Bull Run begun in March 2009 has weakened significantly since the beginning of 2015. From a trading standpoint, our best bet will be to try to leg into vertical put spreads at minor Hidden Pivot targets below 19206. This strategy implicitly acknowledges that straight directional bets with put options will be too costly, since we can’t know exactly when the market will top. We are already long the Dow Industrials via some DIA call spreads we legged into a while back. Because we cashed out of most of them at a profit, the remaining position is cost-free and riskless. ________ UPDATE (March 18, 1:34 a.m. EDT): The bounce from yesterday’s lows tripped a 17874 buy signal to 17961, a midpoint resistance (5-min, a=17638 on 3/13) whose decisive breach would portend more upside to 18136 over the very near-term.
