For four months, GDXJ has been playing toe-sies with a 20.83 target that was put in play back in August. While there is always the possibility that this popular junior mining-stock vehicle is about to turn higher, the weight of the visual evidence suggests lower prices are more likely. If so, a 16.54 (!) target would be logical, calculated by sliding the point ‘A’ high of the pattern up to the peak labeled A2 in the chart. The resulting Hidden Pivot at D2, midway between p and D, would be my minimum downside objective if 20.83 is decisively breached. It’s hard to imagine what factors might account for such an extreme drop, but you don’t have to be a chartist to see the visual logic of it. As a possible alternative, it would take an explosive upthrust exceeding the 54.56 peak from August 2013 to break the spell of the bear market that has pummeled gold stocks for more than four years. _______ UPDATE (9:08 p.m. EDT): GDXJ exceeded the 20.83 support, but only by 15 cents. Bulls will get the benefit of doubt here, but only barely. _______ UPDATE (March 15, 11:25 p.m.): GDXJ spent Friday probing a midpoint resistance at 22.35. If it can get past it today, look for more upside over the near term to exactly 23.16 (5-min, a=21.18 on 3/11). _______ UPDATE (March 18, 1:55 a.m.): Buyers quit just above the midpoint resistance flagged above. Now let’s see if they can hold the line at 21.16, a minor Hidden Pivot support. _______ UPDATE (March 22, 5:41 p.m.): Friday’s encouraging thrust refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart with this potentially tradable pattern: A= 23.02 on 1/19; B= 24.37 on 3/20; C=?. ________ UPDATE (March 25, 12:30 a.m.): GDXJ looks primed for more upside to at least 25.64. On the hourly chart, here are the coordinates: A= 22.65 on 3/19 at 10:30 a.m.; B= 24.37 on 3/20; and C=23.92 on 3/20. _______ UPDATE (March 29, 5:52 p.m.): The six-day rally peaked at 25.24, fully 40 cents shy of my target. That’s enough to raise a yellow flag, although the strong uptrend since mid-March still deserves the benefit of the doubt. If bulls are going to recapture the advantage, however, we should expect this vehicle turn from either 23.32 or, worst case, 22.59 (see inset). _______ UPDATE (March 31, 10:06 a.m.): GDXJ has made a tentative turn yesterday from 22.69 — just a dime from my target. If you bought near the low, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (March 31, 11:40 p.m.): With no feedback, and a breach of 22.59, I’ll put this one on the back burner for now.
