The plunge through a clear Hidden Pivot support at 124.09 has opened a path down to as low as 117.80. As nasty as this selloff feels, it would amount to just 15% if the target is achieved. In the context of the powerful bull cycle begun four years ago from 88, that would hardly be unusual. Whatever happens, we’ll continue to give the long-term bull the benefit of the doubt by looking for completed abcd rallies on the lesser charts. If they start to occur without TLT’s having fallen to 118, we shouldn’t hesitate to jump on them. ______ UPDATE (March 10, 9:12 p.m.): This week’s bounce hasn’t exceeded any prior peaks, so the rally is not yet impulsive. It is encouraging nonetheless because the last two days have seen gap-up openings that would have made it very difficult for bulls to get aboard. That’s how strong rallies often begin, so we’ll keep our fingers crossed._______ UPDATE (March 11, 7:12 p.m. EDT): TLT has pushed above some small external peaks, turning the hourly chart bullishly impulsive. The rally is still uncorrected, and the higher it goes now without correcting, the more power we should impute to it. _______ UPDATE (March 17, 1:24 a.m.): An apparent consolidation over the last three days has the potential to push this vehicle to 130.56 over the near term. This assumes that the 128.53 midpoint resistance between here and there is easily surmounted.
