USM15 – June T-Bonds (Last:165^10)

Gnarly pattern yields a clear targetI provided only bullish targets in my last update, but the futures will need to achieve the corrective ones first. Most immediately, that would imply more downside to the 158^02 target shown. I expect this Hidden Pivot to provide a tradable bounce, but if not, the next stop on the way down would be 156^28, a target derived by sliding up to the next valid point ‘A’ (shown here as A2).  Slide one rung higher still, and you would come up with 155^15. ______ UPDATE (March 5, 11:53 p.m.): A swoon in the early going came within two ticks of the 158^02 target identified above.  Is the worst over?  The futures appeared to consolidate for the remainder of the day, but unless they can leap a 159^11 ‘external’ peak recorded on Wednesday, and soon, a relapse down to 156^28 is hardly a longshot. ______ UPDATE (March 6, 10:32 a.m.): Based on strong payroll data out this morning that no one actually believes, and which reflects a strong job market that does not in fact exist, T-Bonds have taken their worst single-day hit in years. The mini-crash has put into play a 153^17 target whose coordinates, on the 60-minute chart, are A= 168^11 (2/5); B=158^30 (2/19); and C=163^07. _______ UPDATE (March 10, 9:21 p.m.) The rally looks promising, but it will need to exceed 159^10 to turn the hourly chart bullishly impulsive. _______ UPDATE (March 15, 11:30 p.m.): The futures spent most of Friday head-butting a midpoint resistance at 160^00, but if they can push above it today, look for more upside over the near term to at least 161^12. (60-min, A=158^01 on 3/11)._______ UPDATE (March 18, 3:53 p.m.): What a blast!  You can use a 164^18 target now, based on (180-minute chart) A=154^27 on 3/6. _______ UPDATE (March 22, 5:47 p.m.): Friday’s rally left the futures just shy of a 164^18 target that kept us properly bullish last week. My hunch is that the  futures will blow bast it today or tomorrow, presumably bound for a 165^22 target based on these coordinates (60-minute): A=161^09 on 3/18; B=164^07 on 3/18; and C=162^24 on 3/19. _______UPDATE (March 25, 12:36 a.m.): Go, you little mother! The precise stall at p=165^18 (see chart, a new one) yesterday implies that the futures will be on their way up to exactly 168^12 when they surpass the pivot.