June Crude has slightly exceeded a 58.40 rally target, pushing above some external peaks from December in the process. Both events are bullish, implying that the gyrations of the last several days are likely to produce a bullish resolution in the form of rally to new recovery highs in the low to mid-60s. My gut feeling is that at least a few more days of consolidation are needed before this can happen, but you’ll risk little trying to board early if you employ a ‘camouflage’ entry strategy. At the moment, the 15-minute chart would do just fine for this purpose. Be warned, however, that bulls have been stopped out once already trying to leverage the would-be follow-through leg to Monday’s sharp bounce. ______ UPDATE (May 1, 12:24 a.m. EDT): Thursday’s moderate rally left the futures in good shape to hit 61.03, provided p2 resistance at 60.35 can be surmounted. On the 30-minute chart, here are the coordinates: A=56.62 on 4/29 at 9:00 a.m.; B=59.33.
_______ UPDATE (May 5, 12:54 p.m.): Subscribers are reporting that they exited long positions at 61.03, with one reversing the position and going short there. The pullback from the intraday high at 61.10 high came down to 60.51, so partial profit-taking was in order if you were short more than one contract from the top. For now, stop yourself out of what remains if the futures generate a bullish impulse leg on the 3-minute chart. Note: One subscriber says he is staying long, using an old target at 62.84. If so, in order to keep risk:reward constant at 1:3, his implicit stop-loss, based on today’s 61.10 high, would be at 60.52 — the exact low of the pullback so far.
