USM15 – June T-Bonds (Last:155^19)

Uncorrected rally exceedingTreasury futures have staged a strong rally from cliff’s edge, technically speaking, but it would be premature to infer that the brutal correction from late January’s high at 171^09 is over.  However, we can be mildly encouraged by the fact that the bounce has come from a low that lay almost a full point above the longstanding correction target at 150^07 we’ve been using for quite a while. It is typical of bull markets to produce corrections that don’t fully correct. Still, we shouldn’t assume that might the case here until the bounce has exceeded at least two prior peaks on the daily chart. That would imply a further rally to at least 157^13 (see inset), and even then the inference that the futures have embarked on the second giant leg of the steep bull run begun a year ago should be tempered with caution.