Earlier, I suggested shorting a rebound to 54.19. The futures fell without a significant retracement, however, negating the trade. Now, if they crack the 50.17 midpoint support shown, the decline could go all the way to p2=43.19. This is speculative, since the support has not yet been broken. If it happens and the selling continues down to at least 47.80 (or so), a rally back up to 50.17 would be a short, stop 52.50. The implied entry risk of nearly $250 per contract is larger than we typically abide, but you can rein it in by using the ‘camouflage’ technique. For further guidance, stay tuned to the chat room if the set-up materializes during the regular session. _______ UPDATE (July 28, 10:28 a.m. EDT): Basis the September contract, my target is 43.43. At the moment, the futures are groping for support at the p2 of the pattern, 46.16. ________ UPDATE (July 29, 8:46 p.m.): Wednesday’s surge turned the hourly chart short-term bullish, but the steepness of the move will have made more traders eager to get long than we will want to confront at the moment. If there’s an immediate follow-through with no pullback, look for this fright-wig bounce to hit 49.60, then 50.13, or even 50.66, my maximum upside projection for the near term. _______ UPDATE (August 3, 2:59 p.m.): The futures went no higher than 49.52 before relapsing sharply. The 43.43 target identified above still applies, but now the futures would be ‘mechanically’ short-able on a rally to p2=46.16. [Note: P2=46.23 in a redrawn chart; this would have caught 8/4’s exact high, but I’ve used the lower price for tracking purposes. However, I will use the new target, 43.52, for an exit strategy and risk management.] ________ UPDATE (August 4, 12:39 a.m.): Based on reports in the chat room from subscribers who did the trade, I’m establishing a tracking position: short two contracts from 46.16. For now, use a stop loss at 47.06 and an o-c-o order to cover half the position at 45.25. The new target, as noted above, is 43.52 — a nine-cent adjustment.)
