Tuesday’s avalanche brought GDXJ down to within 23 cents of an 18.19 target I’d flagged in the chat room. You can see how precarious the support is in the accompanying chart. If it is exceeded intraday by more than $1.00, or if GDXJ closes for two consecutive days beneath it, I’d infer that a fall to 11.92 looms. The stock is a speculative buy at these levels nonetheless, but if the gambit fails, GDXJ would be a ‘mechanical’ short from 18.19, provided the rally back up to that pivot meets our criteria for mechanical trades. _______ UPDATE (July 26, 1:15 p.m. EDT): GDXJ slightly exceeded the 18.19 target to the downside on Friday, but given the tentatively bullish price action in bullion futures, we should give this vehicle the benefit of the doubt when stocks begin to trade on Monday. Pivoteers will have observed that Friday’s high generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart that could yield a tradable opportunity on a pullback. _______ UPDATE (August 3, 9:49 p.m.): This vehicle has slumped again after failing to make constructive use of the impulse leg noted above. The bullish pattern going back to the July 24 low at 17.92 remains valid nonetheless, but buyers will need some giddyap, and soon, to take advantage of it._______ UPDATE (August 9, 1:38 p.m.): We’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop, but this vehicle has remained stubbornly buoyant. My tout for gold today provides some speculative reasons for this, and that’s why we should keep an open mind toward the possibility of a rally. Its most likely cause, as I mention in the tout, would be a collapse of the stock market sometime in August. _______ UPDATE (August 16, 9:54 p.m.): Assuming Friday’s 20.48 low holds, GDXJ would catch fire with a print above 21.77. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance (see inset, a new chart), and anything decisively above it (i.e., 15-20 cents) would indicate more progress to as high as 23.05 over the near term.
