NQU15 – Sep E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:4514.50)

With Friday's bounceApple’s $12 plunge after the close has caused the E-Mini Nasdaq to shed 55 points so far Tuesday night. The selloff did significant damage to AAPL’s long-term chart, for reasons that I discussed speculatively here earlier. However, the weakness still looks merely corrective for the Nasdaq 100 relative to the spectacular run-up that occurred during the last two weeks. The divergence can’t last, and my hunch is that it will be resolved to the downside. Not that Google, Netflix, Amazon and a few other world-beaters in the Naz lineup are about to enter a slump. Rather, it is case of pie-in-the-sky expectations being tempered to take into account that the biggest stock of them all, AAPL, is no longer an analyst’s wet dream. Look for the futures to retrace at least 0.618 of July’s steep rally. That would bring them down to 4467, my minimum downside expectation for the near-term. Any lower would raise the odds that the 4686 record high achieved on Monday was an important one. _______ UPDATE (July 26, 6:00 p.m. EDT): As you can see in the new chart, Friday’s low was a dead-center bullseye relative to the 4544.50 correction target. It took a week for this pattern to run its course, and we should therefore expect the bounce that began Friday afternoon to go for at least a day or two before sputtering out. This implies that although our bias should be bullish as the week begins, the more important objective will be to get short near the top of this presumptive bounce. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:49 a.m.): A relapse beneath Friday’s low has put the futures on course for a tradable low at 4497.50, or 4474.00 if any lower.