The weekly chart shows how crucial it is that GDX hold above 18.19, the midpoint pivot support of a pattern projecting to as low as 5.64. A fall to at least 11.92 would be likely if the pivot is decisively breached (i.e., a two-bar close below it on the weekly chart). The daily chart is not very encouraging on this point, since the most recent rally failed to exceed July 14’s peak at 22.94. ______ UPDATE (September 1, 12:40 a.m.): The recent low at 18.23 held, albeit barely. Since my target nailed the start of the upswing within four cents, I’ll establish a tracking position if I hear from any subscribers who got long. _______ UPDATE (September 16, 11:09 p.m.): GDXJ has rallied after coming within an inch of falling from a cliff. My immediate upside target is a Hidden Pivot at 20.84 (120-minute, a=18.30 on 8/27), but buyers will have to punch through it to offer further encouragement. Anything above 21.93 would generate the most promising impulse leg we’ve seen in a long while. _______ UPDATE (September 17, 11:51 p.m.): GDXJ took off yesterday on the latest non-news from the Fed, encouragingly trashing the 20.84 target in the process. This will be a tad like calling an election with only 6% of the vote tallied, but if the rally continues without a significant pullback, exceeding the two labeled peaks (the higher of which lies at 22.94; see inset, a new chart) by the end of next week, that would strongly imply the bear market is over.
