Silver has its work cut out for it if it’s going to emerge from bear-market doldrums. I’ve highlighted two significant external peaks in the chart, and the futures will need to exceed both to build up enough steam to power them through August. The key feature of such a rally would be a thrust that surpasses peak #2 without having taken much of a breather after getting past peak #1. First things first, though: Let’s see how well bulls do taking on the first hurdle, as appears imminent. _______ UPDATE (August 24, 9:33 p.m. EDT): Silver’s failure to push above the external peak at 15.900 on the last thrust is bearish, but we’ll give the uptrend the benefit of the doubt until such times as July’s 14.330 low has been exceeded. _______ UPDATE (August 26, 9:43 a.m.): The futures have gotten shredded overnight, down 55 cents at one point. The selloff looks like it won’t run its course until 13.940 is achieved. On the hourly chart, here’s the pattern; A=15.175 on 8/20; B=14.555. _______ UPDATE (August 27, 10:11 a.m.): The futures caught a very tradable low at exactly 13.910, three pennies from my target, and have bounced 31 cents so far. A single subscriber reported getting long near the low, but in lieu of a tracking position, I’ll suggest taking a partial profit at these levels that will allow you to relax sufficiently to let your profits run. If you hold a single contract, use an ‘impulsive’ stop. I am unable at this time to provide a high-confidence target, but I will note nonetheless that the rally is breathing pretty hard at the moment.
