T-Bonds have had quite a run since June, so we shouldn’t read too much into the selloff from Wednesday’s highs. We’ll pay close attention to corrective moves nonetheless, since the way in which they interact with Hidden Pivot supports can tell us how much more selling remains. This pullback has already breached the midpoint pivot of the minor pattern shown, implying it will reach p2=157^15 before bulls can turn things around. Any lower would indicate a minimum 157^01, but we’ll see how well this number absorbs the blow before we make any further judgments. If the futures reverse and exceed 159^28 without having reached 157^01, that would imply that buyers are back in the driver’s seat. _______ UPDATE (August 17, 9:06 p.m.) The 157^15 target nailed the tradable low of a two-point rally — worth as much as $2000 per contract — within three ticks. If you got aboard, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll establish a tracking position. Otherwise, we’ll continue the hunt for bull plays. The current rally cycle, which began last Monday, looks bound for a minimum 161^14 if it can take out the midpoint pivot at 159^13 where it stalled yesterday. Resistance — potentially tradable — at p2=160^14 would likely be felt along the way. _______ UPDATE (August 19, 9:53 a.m.): The futures have bounced from just above p2 of this corrective pattern (on the 60-minute): a=160^22 (8/12); b=157^12 (8/14); and c=159^11. The fact that p2 was not quite reached is speculatively bullish, but if it eventually gives way we should prepare for a slide to as low as D=156^01 before this correction has run its course. That last number would be a back-up-the-truck ‘buy’, tightly stopped, as far as I’m concerned.
