The steep plunge of the last two weeks stopped just shy of a key Hidden Pivot support at 118.43 on Friday, but if it fails, look for a washout down to 115.84. That would correspond to my worst-case target for December T-Bond futures, 150^28, and a long-term interest rate of about 3.21%. Rates on the 30-year were as low as 2.75% just a month ago, so the increase would be quite spectacular. It would also be devastating to a housing market whose buoyancy has helped sustain the illusion of economic recovery. All eyes will be on long-term rates as the week begins, since, from a technical standpoint, just a little more pressure could burst the dam. _______ UPDATE (November 16, 11:12 p.m.): The 118.43 Hidden Pivot has been breached, but only by 41 cents so far — not quite enough yet to tip the odds in favor of a further fall to 115.84. Alternatively, the stock would have to rally to at least 121.26 for bulls to go on the offensive._______ UPDATE (November 30, 10:17 p.m.): TLT popped on Monday to 121.53, the precise midpoint pivot of the bullish pattern shown (see inset, a new chart). A decisive breach of this ‘hidden’ resistance would indicate more upside to at least p2=122.15, or possibly D=122.77 if any higher.________ UPDATE (December 9, 12:01 a.m.): The rally targets a minimum 123.37 short-term, but an easy move through that Hidden Pivot would confirm that bulls have significantly more-ambitious goals for December.
