Friday’s rally was so promising that I’ve switched to a more expansive view of the long-term bull market for perspective. (The bull looks even more impressive when viewed on the monthly chart, which is shown here as an inset.) Most immediately, buyers will need to drive this vehicle past the midpoint pivot (p) at 124.77 (see chart) to suggest they’ve got enough power to achieve the D target at 131.53. This will be a key test, since a robust bull market tends to make short work of Hidden Pivot ‘midpoint’ resistances if there’s staying power behind the charge. For trading purposes, our odds will improve if we buy a pullback to p (stop ) after this vehicle has exceeded it by at least 2.50 points._______ UPDATE (December 23, 9:49 p.m.): Use the pattern shown to trade this vehicle on Thursday, since the 120.18 target looks like a high-odds spot for this correction to end. You can bottom-fish with a 120.23 bid, stop 120.14._______UPDATE December 30, 9:26 p.m.): I suggested loosening the stop-loss in the chat room Tuesday morning when TLT approached my target. Anyone still aboard? If so, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll establish a tracking position. It would take a rally to 120.95 to give bulls a comfort cushion. ______UPDATE (December 31, 2015): Although my target did not catch the bottom exactly, it appears as though a good bottom is in. Since I’ve heard from subscribers who opened long position, I’ll establish a tracking position of 400 shares. For now, offer 200 to exit at 120.95. The order should be held o-c-o with an impulsive stop-loss on the entire position. At the moment, using the hourly chart, the stop-loss would trigger at 119.97. ________ UPDATE (January 4, 9:58 a.m.): We hold 200 shares with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 119.51. For now, use a stop-loss at 119.66. _______UPDATE (January 11, 9:06 p.m.): You go, girl! _______UPDATE (January 13, 9:15 p.m.): Take a partial profit by closing out 100 shares at current levels. Please let me know what you’ve done via email or in the chat room so that I can adjust our cost basis.______ UPDATE (January 19, 8:44 p.m.): We hold a round lot with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 114.02. We’re swinging for the fences on this trade, so do nothing for now. ______UPDATE (January 20, 10:38 p.m.): At today’s highs, our position was showing a theoretical profit of $1390 for each round lot held. Do nothing further, since we are still swinging for the fences. _______ UPDATE (January 25): On the hourly chart, TLT is working on a 129.10 target. It would become a high-odds bet if buyers can push above 126.81, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. I’ll suggest putting on a covered write, using 129-strike calls at least two weeks out if TLT gets within 15 cents of the target. _______UPDATE (Feb 3, 2:46 a.m.): For tracking purposes, I’ll record a sale at 1.60, basis the Feb 19 129 calls. That’s 59 cents off the intraday high with TLT trading up to 129.94 yesterday. _______ UPDATE (February 21): We’ll continue to hold 100 shares, now with a cost basis of 114.32 that reflects a small loss (a foregone gain, actually) from the expired covered write. The call(s) could have been covered at the close on Friday for around 1.98.
