Crude bottomed Friday within 14 cents of the 28.50 target we’d been using. The subsequent bounce reached 29.31, implying a solid profit-taking opportunity for anyone who bottom-fished at or near the target. A stop-loss at 28.22 would have been needed, assuming the objective was a bounce back up to at least p2=29.32. If the rally continues, it will need to hit a minimum 29.97 before it becomes significant on the hourly chart. That would create the first bullish impulse leg we’ve seen since December 31. If the futures instead continue lower, look for them to fall to at least 27.36 (see inset) before they find decent traction. That Hidden Pivot can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 17 cents. (Note: Basis the March contract, a rally would have to hit 30.95 to become interesting, or fall to 28.13 to set up a bottom-fishing opportunity.)
