It’s always possible that yesterday’s rally — prompted, it would seem, by the latest drivel from Yellen — will keep on going, exceeding the two labeled peaks without a pullback. That would put April Gold on course for a run-up to the 13o2.30 target shown. That is not what I expect, however; rather, I am looking for the futures to sputter out somewhat shy of the first peak, then to resume the corrective decline begun from the 1287.80 top recorded on February 11. The implied down-leg will allow us to accurately assess not only the power of the selling, but also the likelihood that it will give way to a renewed burst higher. If so, look for the upturn to begin from within inches of the still-undetermined midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the corrective second leg. At that point, the $1308 ‘Matterhorn’ peak from January 2015 will come back into focus. It is still my benchmark for determining whether we are witnessing a strong bear rally, or perhaps the beginning of a much larger move. ______ UPDATE (March 30, 5:57 p.m. ET): The June contract, currently trading for around 1226.60, looks bound for a minimum 1218.10. The corrective pattern is very tradable and can be found using these coordinates on the one-minute chart: a=1237.60 (3/30, 10:46 a.m.); b=1224.90; and c=1230.80. ________ UPDATE (April 1, 1:07 a.m.): The futures spent Thursday in a dither, stymied by a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 1238.25. If they can push decisively past it today, look for the follow-through to hit 1253.10.
