A thrust to the green line at 37.61 would signal a likely end to the dirge that has lopped $7 from the price of a barrel of crude over the last three weeks. Upside potential at that point would be to as high as 44.70 — a number unlikely to be reached, I would surmise, unless jihadis sink a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not inconceivable, of course, but as a practical matter we should look to get short if the futures reach the midpoint pivot at 39.97. More likely is that prices will work their way even lower in the weeks ahead, groping for traction above the crucial $30 level. _______ UPDATE (April 6, 10:35 p.m. ET): A moderate, three-day rally has brought the futures within easy distance of the 39.97 resistance. We’ll need to use caution to get short, however, since a print just above the pivot, at 40.15, would exceed two ‘external’ peaks on the daily chart. ‘Camouflage’ set-ups on the one-minute chart are appropriate, although you can be more aggressive if you’ve caught a piece of the upside.
