A ‘mechanical’ buy on the pullback to 41.88 would have worked nicely, since it required a 40.92 stop-loss that was well beneath the actual pullback low at 41.30. However, interpolating the trade as a ‘camouflage’ entry would have taken more work and patience, since the futures swooned before the opening to a fright-mask low that should have unnerved bulls. The 44.75 rally target we’ve been using looks like it’s in-the-bag, but because that’s less than a dollar above, traders will need to exercise caution to capture what little implied upside remains. Keep in mind that although I’ve been bullish on crude, I will become less so if and when the June contract maxes out a slightly-bigger-picture target near 46.
