Tuesday’s rally tiptoed oh-so-coyly up to the secondary pivot of the pattern shown. We’ve been using it to stay on the right side of crude’s balky, doomed rally. Price action has now confirmed the pattern with precise hits at both the middle and secondary Hidden Pivots (p and p2 respectively) , meaning that when the futures finally pop decisively above the latter, we can count on a further rally to exactly 51.39 before we are gifted with yet another predictable — and therefore tradable — downturn. I am not bullish on crude, not by any stretch, and see the entire move from February’s lows near $27 as a dead-cat, save-the banksters’-sorry-asses bounce. Barring an act of terrorism that shuts down the Hormuz Strait or some such, a move into the low $50s is about as high as I can see this hoax getting. It may have provided some relief for the banksters in their desperate, losing flight against deflation; however, supply-and-demand factors together with the specter of global recession/depression have doomed the rally in commodities, most particularly in crude oil that has been hocked tenfold against bank loans ’round-the-world. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 10:36 p.m. EDT): The correction targets 47.42, a Hidden Pivot support that you can bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as 13 cents. There’s a chance the turn could come from 47.73, a secondary pivot, so you may need to use ‘camouflage’ to get aboard. This implies initiating the trade on an uptrending ABC pattern of minor degree when the target is closely approached. For guidance in real time, stay tuned to the chat room, where expertise abounds. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 9:24 a.m.): The turn we were expecting came off a 47.45 low that fell three cents from my target. Judging from the discussion in the chat room, subscribers missed getting aboard by a hair — a penny in one case, two cents in another — so I will not be establishing a tracking position. Keep in mind that the trend call was correct to begin with and that there was as much as $500 per contract of profits to be reaped for anyone who got short above the turn. This would have given one the wherewithal to bid more aggressively, and to use a wider stop-loss, when the futures were bottoming.
