As last week ended, DUST appeared all but certain to continue down to the 0.80 bear-market target shown. The pattern that produced it is ‘textbook’ beautiful and has been confirmed by the stock’s precise deference to the midpoint (p) and secondary (p2) Hidden Pivots. Although ‘mechanical’ shorts from both of these levels were possible in theory, in actuality DUST failed by pennies to rally back up to them. Under the circumstances, only a ‘camouflage’ entry could have worked, and even then it would have required considerable diligence and rapt attention. Traders should note that if DUST is about to turn up from 0.80 as I expect, that would correspond to a top of at least short-term importance in the mining stocks. In any event, we’ll plan on bottom-fishing this brick with an 0.83 bid for 800 shares, stop 0.72, good till canceled. The theoretical risk here, including commissions, is about $100. Options on this vehicle are sporting implied volatilities in the cosmos, with ridiculously wide spreads to boot, so I am strongly recommending against buying calls instead of stock. _______ UPDATE (May 5, 2:05 a.m.): The so-far 3-day rally looks mildly promising, but it would have to surpass April 14’s 2.51 peak to turn the daily chart bullishly impulsive. Even the ‘hourly’ would need to hit 2.06 to accomplish this. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 10:29 a.m.): Here’s an interesting discussion of why 3x ETFs tend to fall to zero over the long haul. The discussion gets somewhat arcane and, amazingly, is inconclusive as to whether these vehicles actually decay. I side with the contango/decay trolls, although the author’s point, that there are far more potential negative outcomes than positive, at least partially explains why the zero axis is so strongly magnetic for 3x vehicles. This is all relates to my analysis of DUST, which has just reverse-split 10-to-1 because it was closing on zero. Accordingly, I’ve substituted a new chart that adjusts the downside target from 0.80 to 8.00. I have absolutely no doubt that it will be reached, and that it will generate a precisely tradable bounce._______ UPDATE (11:10 p.m.): Wednesday’s ballistic rally was strongly impulsive on the hourly chart, but mining-share bears should wait for a further push above the two labeled peaks before breaking out the bubbly. If that should happens with no b-c pullback along the way, it would be very bullish indeed for DUST — and therefore bearish for mining shares. _______UPDATE (May 22, 1:38 a.m.): Last Thursday’s rally to 16.96 was mildly impulsive and points to as high as 18.73 over the near term, provided p=16.40 is exceeded on Monday or Tuesday and 14.07 is not exceeded to the downside first. _______ UPDATE (May 31): The stock popped to within 0.06 points of the 18.73 target noted above but has flat-lined since. I’ve set a snooze alarm for 21.10. since that’s when the rally would start to become faintly interesting. _______ UPDATE (June 6, 9:49 a.m.) DUST looks lower at the moment, but we should look for a potentially tradable bounce from 10.27. That’s a ‘D’ Hidden Pivot on the hourly chart that can be found using the following coordinates: A=20.50 on 4/27; B=12.10 on 5/17; and C=18.67. _______ UPDATE (June 8, 9:58 p.m.): The gap-down opening through the 10.27 today was not exactly a sign of good health. Some earlier forecasts, made pre-split, called for a bottom as low as 1.07. First things first, though: I am now projecting a minimum 5.67 over the near term. Will DaBoyz have to split this dreck yet again in order to draw in a few more rubes? The 5.67 target can be found using these coordinates on the daily chart; A=25.10 on 4/14; B=12.10 on 5/17. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:42 p.m.): DUST has fallen below $7 today and you can kiss it good-bye. I will be removing it from the home page shortly, since it’s only taking up space at this point. If it reverse splits, that will only bring it back to life in the way a zombie returns to life.
