NUGT’s manic leap on Friday blew well past a clear Hidden Pivot target at 108.45, implying that bulls aren’t done yet. Since 108.45 is the highest projection that can be inferred from the weekly chart, we’ll need to see a pullback before it’s possible to come up with a new target. (Note: The daily chart suggests that a Hidden Pivot resistance at 121.96 could slow or even halt buyers, presumably temporarily. The target comes from A=52.79 on 4/1; and B=95.59 on 4/20.) In any event, if this vehicle surpasses the 141.90 peak recorded nearly a year ago, mining-share bulls would have reason to break out the bubbly, since that would create a new and very powerful impulse leg of weekly-chart degree. If this happens without a significant B-C pullback occurring in the interim, it would be even more bullish. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 3:15 a.m.): With yesterday’s dive, the gap got filled in a single day. A proper ‘mechanical’ buy has not yet been signaled at p=100.56, but one could still use ‘camouflage’ to generate an entry price near there on a chart of lesser degree. I’d suggest the one-minute bars, since NUGT has come down pretty hard. A ‘mechanical’ buy at x=89.86, stop 79.15, seems less risky to me, although there are no guarantees that the correction will come down that far. _______ UPDATE (May 5, 2:02 a.m.): We’ll keep close tabs on this vehicle, since it can help corroborate the very bearish outlook in the current GDX tout. The most bullish scenario I can imagine right now would be for NUGT to trip a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal off the pattern shown (see inset). Alternatively, the most bearish event conceivable would be for the selloff to exceed mid-April’s 69.00 low without an upward correction on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 7:39 p.m.): A two-day rally into Friday’s close recouped about half of the week’s losses, but the stall at 108.63, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, has put the burden of proof on bulls for the moment. If they can push above the red line and hold above it until Thursday, that would not only significantly shorten the odds of a further rally to D=131.05, but also make p available as to place to get long using a ‘mechanical’ bid.
