Soybean futures continued their rampage higher on Monday, but don’t call it inflation. Bad weather in some key growing regions around the world is causing the surge, which extends to the entire grain complex. Yesterday’s thrust began when Argentine growers, plagued in recent weeks by heavy rains and flooding, lowered oilseed estimates. When we looked at July beans last week during an impromptu tech-analysis session during trading hours, I proffered an 1121-2/8 rally target. That’s still my target, and odds that it will be achieved will shorten if the futures blow past the midpoint resistance at 1053-6/8 (see inset) today or tomorrow. Pullbacks to either the red or the pink line, respectively the midpoint and secondary pivots of the rally pattern, can be used to get long ‘mechanically,’ provided you understand the simple rules governing this type of trade. ______ UPDATE (May 5, 8:59 p.m.): The futures have reversed sharply from slightly above p=1053-6/8, so there should have been no surprises. The Hidden Pivot levels associated with that number still obtain. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 11:09 p.m.): The futures resumed their rampage higher with a spike almost precisely to the 1087-4/8 ‘secondary pivot’ shown in the original chart. Just one more thrust and we’ll have our target: 1121-2/8. July beans will be due for a good rest if and when they get there. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 10:43 a.m.): Beans have rallied sharply since Monday. The 1121-2/8 target still beckons and will be very much in play if and when SN16 vaults the p2=1087-4/8 secondary pivot that so far has stymied bulls.
