We used the 43.10 target shown last week to get a useful perspective on the downtrend. That the futures showed mild reluctance to get there is ostensibly bullish, but the target itself will remain valid until such time as 46.93 is exceeded to the upside. It would take more than that, however — specifically, an upthrust exceeding the labeled, 48.25 peak by mid-session Tuesday — to suggest that bulls are capable of reversing the five-week-old downtrend. If this happens, we have an old rally target at 52.58 to guide us, along with a related midpoint pivot at 48.50 to gauge the strength of the buying. Please note that a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal has been in effect since last Tuesday, when the futures first hit the green line. The trade would have required a 44.41 stop-loss, however, and that is why we passed it up unless done via ‘camouflage’. _______ UPDATE (July 21, 6:53 p.m. EDT… July 25, 7:18 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
