Some subscribers may have jumped the gun, shorting this vehicle Tuesday on the basis of the bearish tout I had disseminated the night before. This is not how we roll, however, since my instructions will be very precise if a trade is indicated. In this case, I’d said the futures were ‘flirting’ with a key support. They did not break it, however, and instead went sharply higher. The rally tripped a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal at 46.46 on the weekly chart (see inset), and although I wouldn’t recommend a conventional entry, the signal warrants a bullish trading bias in the days ahead — at least until the futures hit or exceed p=48.50, or fail to do so with a dive below C=44.42.
On the lesser charts (i.e., the 15-minute) a push above 47.03 would be warning bears to dive for cover. Night owls should note that the 15-minute has just signaled a ‘mechanical’ buy at p=46.25, stop 45.99, for a shot at 47.03 or higher. Crude’s price action has been menacing lately, to say the least, and only experienced traders should attempt to leverage the swings using Hidden Pivots. Subscribers may want to check out the recording from today’s impromptu session (link posted in the chat room) for a more detailed analysis of crude’s intraday charts. There is also exhaustive analysis and forecasts for T-Bonds, Gold, Silver and other issues tracked by Rick’s Picks. _______ UPDATE (July 13, 9:13 p.m.): The futures are doing their best to taunt traders on either side of the fence. They’ve tripped a ‘counterintuitive’ trade on the weekly chart to as high as 52.58, but just a little weakness exceeding 44.12 would negate it and put a relatively minor downside target at 43.10 in play. For now, we’ll focus on that Hidden Pivot, since the 44.06 ‘secondary’ pivot with which it is associated looks likely to be achieved. If it’s exceeded by more than 15 cents, that would shorten the odds of more selling to 43.10, where bottom-fishing is suggested with a 22-cent stop-loss.