SIU16 – September Silver (Last:20.390)

Silver became a theoretical buyI gave up trying to find subscribers who may have bought down at 20.155 last Friday based on the limit bid I’d advised. Had I established a tracking position, however, we’d be long 25% of the original position and swinging for the fences. Instead, I’ll assume a fresh start by noting first of all that September Silver is a theoretical ‘mechanical’ buy with tonight’s pullback to the green line. The trade is appealing because there are two ABC uptrends driving the futures at the  moment: the big pattern begun from 17.585 on 6/28; and a lesser one begun from 19.985 on 7/27 (or alternatively, if we need it, from 19.490 on 7/25).  Since a mechanical bid implies about $4500 of entry risk per contract, however, we’ll look to get long via ‘camouflage’, using an uptrending ABC pattern on the 5-minute chart or less. It will take vigilance to identify such an opportunity if and when it occurs, so I’m going to crowd-source this task to Pivoteers in the chat room who have an eye for subtleties. _______ UPDATE (August 4, 8:32 p.m. EDT): Silver took a sprightly bounce from just below the green line (see above), but there was little evidence that subscribers were able to make use of it as suggested above. A ‘camouflage’ entry was possible, as was a ‘counterintuitive’ one, but these tactics would have required more than average skill to execute. I’ll continue to flag opportunities in this vehicle as they arise, but the gambit advised above has exhausted the supply of immediate possibilities intended for general consumption.  However, night owls confident in their Hidden Pivot chops should consider tightly-stopped bottom-fishing at the 20.225 midpoint support of this shapely pattern on the 60-minute: a=20.730 (8/3 at 9:00 a.m.); b=20.080 (8/3 at 11:00 p.m.); and c=20.550 (8/4). _______ UPDATE (August 5, 10:28 a.m.): ‘Bullish’ payroll numbers have sent silver plummeting. On the three-minute chart, this vehicle targets 19.550 at the moment: a=20.285 at 8:27 a.m. Unlike December Gold, however, it has not tripped a ‘mechanical’ short yet from its respective midpoint support, 19.823.