The well-formed corrective pattern shown points to 110.81, a Hidden Pivot that is likely to provide a tradable bounce as precise as the one that occurred Friday from the midpoint pivot at 113.34. I’ve suggested using a bullish bias for AAPL in the event that the shakedown in bellwether AMZN holds above last week’s lows. However, it now looks like both stocks will fall together, although not by much, to reach their respective corrective targets. If so, look for them to pull the broad averages lower over the next day or two. ______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 4:35 p.m.): After plummeting $3, AAPL caught a 97-cent bounce today from 110.53. That may seem like a near-bullseye relative to the 110.81 target I’d proffered, but my take is that the 28-cent overshoot blew the targeted support to smithereens. That means still-lower prices are likely. Accordingly, you should be diligent and precise in managing position risk if you bottom-fished your way aboard near the lows. In practice, this means taking a partial profit on calls so that you have reduced the cost basis of any options you continue to hold to half or less of their acquisition price. If you bought stock, the same principle obtains: Take a partial profit so that if AAPL relapses you’ll come away with at least a small gain. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3, 8:45 p.m.): The stock has fallen below 110.81 as anticipated. From here, the nearest Hidden Pivot support lies at 108.65, and it is quite clear. The implication is that even a slight breach of the support would portend still more weakness. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 8:20 p.m.): The stock fell to 107.71 on Friday, implying still more weakness to come._______ UPDATE (Nov 8, 7:39 p.m.): AAPL has reversed course, but we’ll set the bar at 117 so that we don’t get prematurely enthused. If the stock hits our benchmark, that would decisively exceed the midpoint resistance of the pattern shown (see inset, a new chart), opening a path to as high as 124.27. _______UPDATE (Nov 11, 10:32 p.m.): The stock has headed lower. Judging from the ease with which it exceeded a Hidden Pivot midpoint support on today at 106.60 (see inset, a new chart), it’s going to grope its way down to d=101.47 before bulls can find traction. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 7:58 p.m.): Today’s weak rally has not changed the short-term picture, which remains bearish. However, spike on Wednesday exceeding 109.10 would put bears on the defensive. ________ UPDATE (Nov 17, 1:03 a.m.): AAPL trampolined off a bear-trap bar on the opening, but the rally ran out of steam around mid-session. Buyers will need to push this cinder block above 111.72 today or tomorrow to prove they’re serious. That’s were a key high was recorded 11/8 on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Nov 21, 11:17 p.m.): Monday’s ballistic opening bar gave the stock enough boost to hit 111.99, exceeding some important ‘external’ peaks from a couple of weeks ago. This implies that any weakness in the days ahead will be a consolidation for a run-up to as high as 114 over the near term.
