What an ordeal these last few weeks have been, even for the most patient bears. Whereas we might have expected the stock market to continue plummeting after its promising swan dive on September 9, what we’ve seen instead is the broad averages thrashing around like a hot air balloon being dragged to the ground in a windstorm. I’m still on board with the longstanding, bearish target at 2090.75 shown in the inset, but this comes with the acknowledgment that the futures have been bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart since Friday. I will therefore predict nothing in particular for tomorrow, while noting that a push above 2134.50 would be reason for short-happy bears to back away, at least for an hour or two. A short from 2152.25 might be attempted thereupon, but your stop-loss should allow no more than 1.00 point of adversity. These numbers will apply only if the bullish pattern’s point ‘c’ low at 2116.75 remains intact. _______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 6:35 p.m. ET): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 1:34 p.m.): Still no change, although I am advising the short from 2152.25 only for those who have been long for at least a part of the ride up. ________ UPDATE (Oct 20, 6:46 p.m.): There’s nothing we can do to alleviate this incredibly boring stretch of days stuck in an absurdly tight trading range. It has not changed my outlook or analysis.
